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Pay close attention to a good start a number of new items on the day of the conference, the National Development and Reform Commission spokesman said Yan Pengcheng, a quarter of China's economy continued good momentum since the third quarter of last year, maintained a steady progress, steady for the good development trend . According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of 56 fixed assets investment projects, involving a total investment of 240.9 billion yuan. These projects are mainly concentrated in the fields of water conservancy, energy and transportation.
In terms of major engineering packages, as of the end of February, a total investment of 8.8806 billion yuan has been completed, and 56 special projects and 593 projects have been started. The newly added major tourism and tourism project package has started 8 special projects, with an accumulated investment of 538.9 billion yuan.
The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center believes that the total investment in the construction project from January to February will increase by 22% year-on-year, and the growth rate will be 12% higher than that of the previous year, which will support the investment in March. This year is a crucial year for the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan. A large number of new projects are under construction, and the prospects for infrastructure investment growth are good. The 13th Five-Year Plan for the development of civil aviation released this year also proposes to continue construction, renovation and expansion. More than 200 relocated airports, investment has bottomed out. However, Bank of Communications also reminded that the willingness to invest in manufacturing is still weak, and the growth rate of real estate development investment may slow down in the second half of the year, and the overall investment growth rate is unlikely to continue to rise significantly.
On the other hand, since the second half of 2016, the pace of PPP projects has significantly accelerated. According to the statistics of market institutions, as of the end of March 2017, the number of PPP projects that have been announced by the social capital party has reached 2,579, of which about 52% have been launched since July 2016.
According to statistics, compared with state-owned enterprises, private enterprises have advantages in winning the number of PPP projects, but private enterprises account for a relatively small proportion of investment, mainly small PPP projects with an investment scale of less than 1 billion yuan. Major infrastructure projects such as expressways and rail transit with long payback periods are less involved. Yan Pengcheng introduced that there are two reasons for this phenomenon: First, the private enterprise's financial strength is relatively weak, and it is easy to be constrained when participating in large-scale PPP projects; second, PPP projects are mostly traditional infrastructure projects, and private enterprises have participated in the past. There are not many such projects, and there is a lack of relevant experience and capabilities in management, technology, and operations. However, this situation is also undergoing positive changes. More and more private enterprises are participating in PPP projects, and a number of representatives of private companies have emerged.
Recovering foreign trade for the third consecutive quarter
The General Administration of Customs released import and export data on the 13th. In the first quarter of 2017, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.8% over the same period of 2016, of which exports were 3.33 trillion yuan, up 14.8%; 2.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.1%; trade surplus 454.94 billion yuan, narrowing 35.7%.
This is already the third consecutive quarter of China's foreign trade growth. Huang Yuping, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, pointed out at the press conference of the State Council on the 13th.
From the structure point of view, general trade import and export increased by 23.2%, accounting for 56.2% of China's total import and export value, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the same period of 2016, and the trade structure was optimized. In addition, the proportion of imports and exports of private enterprises has increased. In the first quarter, the import and export of private enterprises in China increased by 22.5%, accounting for 36.8% of China's total foreign trade, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year. Mechanical and electrical products and traditional labor-intensive products are still the main exporters, of which imports of mobile phones and automatic data processing equipment increased by 21.1% and 12.5% ​​respectively.
Judging from the leading indicators, according to customs statistics, China’s foreign trade export leading index was flat in March. In March, China’s foreign trade export leading index was 40.2, ending the four-month sequential increase, which was the same as last month.
Huang Qiping pointed out that the current global economy shows signs of continuous improvement, external demand is picking up; the domestic economy is stable and positive, driving imports to continue to increase; import prices have risen sharply, and the simultaneous increase in import value has driven the growth of foreign trade in the first quarter. In addition, last year The low base in the same period is also an important reason for the high growth rate of imports and exports in the first quarter of this year.
"The internal and external environment is conducive to China's rebound in foreign trade in the first quarter, and has turned further from the previous two quarters." Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the "Economic Information Daily" reporter that the external Look, the international market is picking up. The foreign trade data just released by South Korea has also been growing for several months, indicating that the overall external environment has improved. More importantly, the internal power is enhanced. From the documents of the State Council to foster new advantages in foreign trade growth, to the new models such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Free Trade Zone and e-commerce, the internal motivation of China's foreign trade has been enhanced. However, Bai Ming also said that there are still uncertain factors such as protectionism in the future, and it cannot be taken lightly in the second quarter.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, believes that the improvement in external demand has clearly driven export demand, and the manufacturing PMI export order index rose to 51% for four consecutive months. The rapid growth of imports is driven by low base, price recovery and demand recovery. In his view, the export situation this year is expected to be significantly better than the past two years. With the weakening of the low base effect and the narrowing of the year-on-year increase in import prices, the future import growth may decline somewhat, but the increase in import growth over the whole year is more likely than the increase in exports.
The situation continued to rebound in the first quarter of the economy
Yan Pengcheng said that with the steady advancement of the supply-side structural reform priorities such as “three to one, one reduction and one supplementâ€, the innovation-driven strategy has been implemented in depth, the mass entrepreneurial innovation has been vigorously carried out, the potential of domestic demand has been continuously released, and risk control in key areas has continued to increase. Coupled with the increase in signs of global economic recovery, the first quarter is likely to continue the momentum since the third quarter of last year.
Previously, at the 2nd China New Normal Economic Development High-level Forum, the experts including Liu Shangxi, president of the China Finance Science Research Institute and Huang Zhen, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, were all more optimistic about the economic trend in the first quarter. They believe that the key is that confidence has come back. Although there is no V-shaped reversal at the moment, the L-type has given everyone a stable psychological expectation.
According to the current data, the obvious feeling this year is that the data consistency is stronger than the original. “In the past, there was a macroscopically good microscopic difference, that is, the macro data may be good, but the micro-enterprise feels very bad. Now, the micro-feeling and macroscopic data consistency has been enhanced.†According to Liang, the first quarter is the supply side. The structural reforms have continued to deepen, and the cultivation effect of new kinetic energy is emerging. The “three to one, one reduction and one supplement†continues to consolidate and deepen, and the de-capacity of steel and coal, including the disposal of zombie enterprises, has made progress.
The report of the research group of the School of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that the GDP of the first quarter is expected to increase by 6.8%. Experts pointed out that this is mainly because the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was relatively fast, and the good momentum continued to the first quarter of this year, and the general increase in raw material prices led to a substantial increase in corporate profits. The increase in private investment also boosted economic growth, but in the second and third quarters. GDP growth may slow down.
Experts also reminded that whether it is from fixed assets investment or foreign trade import and export data, although the situation in the first quarter is good, other unfavorable factors should be considered. Yan Pengcheng believes that due to the internal and external factors that restrict the sustained and healthy development of China's economy, the structural imbalance is still prominent, and the stability and sustainability of the economic recovery remains to be seen.
Zhang Jun, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, believes that real estate regulation and upgrading will help to curb real estate price bubbles and prevent systemic financial risks in the long run, but in the short term, sudden braking may lead to risk of overshoot in the year, which may Leading to real estate investment stalls. At the same time, he expressed doubts about whether the growth rate of infrastructure investment can maintain high speed. If fixed asset investment is confirmed to be lower than expected in the future, the sustainability of industrial production recovery will be difficult to maintain.
In terms of foreign trade, Huang Yiping pointed out that although the first quarter continued to stabilize, the current global economy is generally recovering, but the international environment is still complicated. The situation in the first quarter cannot represent the trend of the whole year. Whether the foreign trade continues to recover or not, there are still many factors to be considered, including the weak global economic recovery, the lack of fundamental improvement in market demand, and the intensification of trade protection, which will hinder China's exports.
"Preliminary judgment, China's foreign trade import and export growth in the second quarter is likely to fall back." Huang said that at the same time, we should also see that there are still many favorable conditions for China's foreign trade development, the fundamentals of foreign trade development have not changed, and no major risks occur. Next, after continuous efforts, China's foreign trade import and export this year is expected to continue to stabilize and improve.
Import and export data doubled in the first quarter, the economy continued to return to steady state
On the 13th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Customs released the macroeconomic operation data for the first quarter. The data shows that in the first quarter, a total of 56 fixed assets investment projects were approved and approved, involving a total investment of 240.9 billion yuan. China's foreign trade in the first quarter of imports and exports increased by 21.8%, continued to go...
On the 13th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Customs released data on macroeconomic operations for the first quarter. The data shows that in the first quarter, a total of 56 fixed assets investment projects were approved and approved, involving a total investment of 240.9 billion yuan. China's foreign trade in the first quarter of imports and exports increased by 21.8%, continuing the trend of stabilization in the second half of last year. Judging from the data and the leading index, the macroeconomic situation in the first quarter continued the warming trend from last year to the present.