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The pace of reorganization of the steel industry will accelerate and the situation of “northern and lighter†will change.
The transformation and development of China's steel industry has reached a critical period that cannot be delayed. The official promulgation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry†undoubtedly pointed out the direction for the transformation and upgrading of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of the steel industry. Insiders pointed out that "Planning" will lead the steel industry to usher in a new development. The "Planning" will speed up the restructuring of the steel industry, increase the concentration of the industry, and optimize the regional layout to change the situation of "north and light south." The "Plan" proposes to accelerate the pace of mergers and acquisitions of iron and steel enterprises and encourage social capital to participate in the merger and reorganization of state-owned steel enterprises. The proportion of steel production in the top 10 steel enterprises in the country is estimated to increase from 48.6% to 60%. Focus on supporting large-scale steel enterprises to carry out cross-regional and cross-ownership mergers and acquisitions. Actively support the merger and reorganization of regional superior steel enterprises, significantly reduce the number of steel enterprises, promote regional steel enterprises to accelerate industrial upgrading, and continuously improve the level of development. Li Hongliang, an analyst at Guotai Junan, believes that the “Planning†will accelerate the restructuring of the steel industry and increase industrial concentration. In fact, the prototype of the domestic steel plate will appear in the next 5-10 years. In the future, it will promote the process of restructuring and the integration and synergy of resources after reorganization. In the "Planning", it is proposed to promote the improvement of Angang and Panzhihua Iron and Steel, Benxi Steel, Sangang and other enterprises, Baosteel and Guangdong iron and steel enterprises, WISCO and Yunnan, Guangxi iron and steel enterprises, Shougang and Jilin, Guizhou, Shanxi and other places of steel enterprises mergers and reorganization. Sangang Shuguang (Market, Information), Songgang Songshan (quotation, information), Liugang shares (quotations, information) and other future there are expectations of mergers and acquisitions. In addition, the layout of China's steel industry generally shows the characteristics of “Northern Heavy South Light†and “East East and West Lessâ€. The southeast coastal areas, especially the Pearl River Delta region, have long-term transportation of steel from the outside, while the five provinces and cities in the Bohai Rim region The production capacity is around 400 million tons, and nearly half of the surplus production flows to other areas mainly in the south. This unreasonable layout has caused great crowding and waste of public resources. In this regard, the "Plan" proposes that the Bohai Sea and the Yangtze River Delta region will no longer lay out new steel bases in principle, and the southeast coast will accelerate the construction of Zhanjiang and Fangchenggang coastal steel boutique bases and promote the construction of Fujian Ningde Iron and Steel Base. Luo Jin, an analyst at CICC, believes that the promulgation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†indicates the government’s determination and direction for the adjustment of the industry structure, which will boost the market sentiment in the short term. In the long run, if it can be implemented effectively, it will be effective. Improve the industry structure, enhance the competitiveness of the industry in the industrial chain, and cultivate superior enterprises. The analyst believes that the "plan" will optimize the regional layout and change the situation of "north and light south." For example, in the Bohai Rim and the Yangtze River Delta region, new steel mills are no longer laid out, including Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, and Shanxi, and Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Anhui, and Jiangxi do not increase the total amount and structure adjustment. If we can effectively control the new capacity in these areas, it will alleviate the situation of oversupply. Focusing on the development of the southeast coastal base, it is expected that the possibility of approval of Baosteel Zhanjiang Base and WISCO Fangchenggang Base will be enhanced, and the process of acquisition and merger of the relevant southern coastal steel mills (Yugang, Liuzhou and Sangang) may move forward. Western regions such as Xinjiang emphasize moderate development. It is expected that key projects such as Bayi Steel and Xinxing Casting Pipe (News, Information) will be approved, but the overall new supply in Xinjiang will be controlled in an orderly manner. The analysts of the First Venture Research Institute believe that the recent steel sector is expected to usher in a turning point: First, the market has fully responded to the low profile of the steel sector, and the performance in the fourth quarter is not significantly lower than expected; The "five plans" may bring some highlights; the third is the expected increase in credit easing. In the next two months, it is expected that nearly 650 billion loans are expected to ease the downstream and steel traders' funds, which is beneficial to downstream demand and steel price rebound. And the average daily crude steel output in October fell by about 5.5% from the previous month, indicating that the steel mill inspection effect appeared, and the relationship between supply and demand is expected to improve.