In 2011, the chemical fiber market was ups and downs. What determines the market is no longer the boost of raw materials, but the continuing downturn in the demand situation.

Sinochem New Network News In 2011, the most critical constraint factor in the chemical fiber industry is no longer the boost of raw materials, but the continuing downturn in the downstream demand. Due to the drastic drop in the production rate of terminal manufacturing and lower demand for raw materials, market participants are generally bearish on the market outlook. Coupled with the shrinking of foreign trade orders, leading to poor factory shipments, inventories are serious.

Specifically, in 2011, the performance of various industrial chains in the chemical fiber industry was mixed, and the sub-industry chain of the chemical fiber market was counted.

The polyester industry chain moved closer to the downstream. The price trend of the polyester industry chain in 2011 basically showed a downward trend. For raw material PTA, the spot market trend can be summarized as four stages: upside down, down, rebound, and shock. The market has seen two highs throughout the year. One appeared in the middle of February in the first half of the year, the market price was as high as 11,800 yuan/ton or more; another high point appeared in September of the second half of the year, which was a rebound high after a wave of falling prices, and the price was between 10,500 yuan and 10,600 yuan/ Ton.

Polyester Polyester: In 2011, the polyester chip market showed a trend of rising first and then decreasing. The market price reached 13,675 yuan/ton in the first half of March, the highest level in the year, and the market's attention has also increased. However, as the chemical fiber market entered the off-season and the downstream demand continued to decline, the overall market sentiment of polyester dropped. Judging from the current situation, the market conditions for polyester chips still remain to be determined by raw material price support and the rebound of downstream polyester demand.

Polyester: In 2011, the price of polyester staple fiber fluctuates significantly, and the market is weak. Looking at the price trend of polyester staple fiber in 2011, it can be divided into three stages. The first phase was from January to April, when the product prices rose first and then suppressed, and the prices fluctuated at high levels. Polyester staple fiber once rose to 15,150 yuan/ton in mid-February. The second stage was in May-August, because the power shortage and profit pressure still suppressed the demand of the downstream yarn companies, the market of pure polyester yarn declined, and the price center of gravity fell. September-November was the third stage, with polyester and short-term prices rising first and then suppressing. The stabilization of cotton prices is a boost for polyester staple fiber, coupled with better expectations for the “golden nine silver and ten silver” terminal textile peak season, the domestic polyester staple fiber market began to expand significantly, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester and short-term mainstream talks once rose To 14,000 yuan / ton. In October, the traditional textile consumer season did not come. Polyester products prices continued to decline due to weak demand. The production and sales rate of polyester yarn companies fell to 40% to 60%.

Polyester: In 2011, the polyester filament market showed more new production capacity, higher polyester filament prices, lower downstream demand, sharp decline in demand in the fourth quarter, and the inverse price characteristics of polyester filament products. The 2011 polyester filament market can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is the period from the beginning of the year to July, which corresponds to the high price of polyester filaments. The second phase is about two months from the end of July to mid-September, corresponding to the fact that downstream demand is ahead of schedule. The third stage is from mid-September to the end of November, which corresponds to the sharp drop in downstream demand and the inverse cost of the price. At present, the price of filaments has risen by RMB 1,000/t and has been oscillating.

As a whole, in 2011, the raw materials and downstream markets of the polyester industry chain gradually became differentiated and gradually moved closer to the downstream market. It is expected that the market will continue this trend in 2012, and the downstream market will be the focus of the entire industry chain.

Acrylic industry chain rose and fell after the acrylonitrile market: In the middle of January-March 2011, the overall trend of the domestic acrylonitrile market steadily increased gradually. External market prices were boosted by the firmness of the market, and the mainstream offer in the domestic market was firm. The manufacturers were bullish. The highest spot price of the port can reach 21,300 yuan/ton. From late March to mid-May, the domestic market for acrylonitrile declined slightly. External disk import costs increased pressure, a large number of domestic stocks flooded the East China market, business sales pessimistic attitude, offer more intentions to lower prices. By the end of May, the domestic spot price of acrylonitrile had dropped to 18,500 yuan/ton. From late May to mid-July, the domestic acrylonitrile market showed a second wave of gains, but this increase was limited. From mid-July to early November, the domestic market for acrylonitrile showed a substantial bottom. Due to the weak demand in the downstream market, business sentiment weighed on bearish sentiment and the market continued to decline. From the aspect of supply and demand, domestic manufacturers started to operate at a high level. Except for routine inspection and repair of some devices, other suppliers of off-the-shelf equipment are operating at full capacity. However, the downstream market demand is weak, some manufacturers implement the listed price protection policy, although the market decline has been postponed, but also more ambiguous the actual transaction price, the industry more than a wait-and-see attitude. The port market did not provide much cargo, but spot shipping was too expensive and the inquiry atmosphere was generally limited. The spot price of the external disk market continued to decline and the raw material propylene market continued to plummet. The spot price of the domestic market continued to drop. In addition, the purchase of ABS and acrylamide raw materials remained sluggish in the downstream, and the volume was limited. The market talked about the atmosphere was light, and the market was generally small.

In the downstream acrylic fiber market, the overall trend of domestic acrylic fiber in 2011 showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Since February of this year, the prices of acrylic fiber and raw material acrylonitrile have been pulled up sharply, and the prices of acrylic fiber have been increased continuously. The high point of acrylic staple fiber has reached 25,700 yuan per ton, and the top of acrylic staple fiber has reached 26,800 yuan per ton. After nearly four months of sideways finishing, the downstream manufacturers and sellers were overwhelmed. As a result, the acrylic manufacturers were pressured to lower prices and began to phase back. While the raw material acrylonitrile continues to be explored, the acrylic market is also deeply affected. In December, the domestic acrylic staple fiber dropped to a 2011 low of 18,400 yuan/ton, and the acrylic top fell to a full-year low of 19,500 yuan/ton. From January to December, the prices of staple fiber and wool tops in the domestic acrylic fiber market dropped by 5,200 to 5,400 yuan per ton, or about 22.7% and 21.1% respectively. From April to December, the prices of domestic staple fiber and wool topped down. More than 7300 yuan / ton, the decline was 28.4% and 27.2% respectively.

The ups and downs of the nylon industrial chain In 2011, the overall market of caprolactam and nylon chips fluctuate greatly, showing the trend of the English letter “M”. The price of the first quarter rose to a historical high, and the price shocks fell in the second quarter. However, in the third quarter, the inflection point of the market went up and returned to a high level. The good times were not long. In the fourth quarter, the market was first weakened and the price continued to decline.

In the first quarter: shortage of supplies and soaring prices. In January-February, international oil prices fluctuated at a high level above $90/barrel, and raw material prices rose sharply. Both in terms of cost and confidence, the operator is backed by certain support. In addition, the maintenance of Nanjing East DSM and Taiwan CPDC caprolactam equipment makes the domestic and international market supply tighter, the inflow of foreign supplies is limited, and the downstream demand continues to increase, driving the CPL. The price continues to rise. On March 11, the outbreak of the 9.0-magnitude earthquake in Japan exacerbated the shortage of supply of goods. The market price was raised to the highest price of 28,800 yuan to 29,000 yuan per ton in 2011.

In the second quarter, polymerization started to decline, and demand dropped. After a slight stalemate, the caprolactam market began to decline, and the overall decline was greater, with a monthly decline of 5.6%. The national macro-control policies are tight. In May, the deposit reserve ratio was raised again, making downstream factories "short of money". At the same time, the “accumulative superposition” effect caused by unfavorable factors such as rising labor costs and *** appreciation has a greater impact on companies. The number of days of inventory in the downstream slicing factories rose to about half a month. Tire cord fabrics and conventional spinning slicing factories stopped or drastically reduced the load operation. The start of production was about 60%, which seriously affected the market demand for CPL. The CPL market negotiated prices between 27,200 and 2,750 yuan/ton.

In the third quarter: After a shock, it stopped falling and rebounded. Due to the sharp drop in the operating rate of the Nanjing Oriental Plant, the inventory of raw materials continued to decline, the supply of goods on the site decreased drastically, and the enquiries in the downstream slicing market gradually increased. Sinopec also raised its guidance price at this time, and the market began to show signs of rising. This time the price rose to the beginning of September, affected by the European debt crisis, the price of bulk products tends to soften, and market confidence has declined. Coupled with the negative effects of domestic inflation, local debt and appreciation, the slicing market has continued to fall. The price dropped from 30,000 yuan/ton to 25,000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of slicing factories has also dropped from 80% to 40% to 50%, and even some manufacturers have chosen to stop and overhaul. As a result, the market price of CPL has gradually declined.

In the fourth quarter, the European debt crisis spread and prices continued to decline. The Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday also met at this stage. However, the downstream market did not make pre-holiday stock preparation as usual, and the market buying was extremely depressed. In November, the European debt crisis continued to spread, which brought tremendous pressure on the global financial market and aggravated market panic. Up to now, the caprolactam market has been offered at around RMB 21,000/t, which is a sharp drop of RMB 8,000/ton from the highest price of RMB 29,000/ton this year, a decrease of 28%. The slicing price was 22,800 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 32% compared with the highest point of the year, 30,000 yuan/ton. The difference between the slice and the CPL is around 1800 yuan/ton, and the profit of the slicer manufacturer has already made a loss.

After the baptism of 2011, the chemical fiber market will become more mature and robust in 2012.