The National Bureau of Statistics will release third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on the 18th. Prior to this, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter interviewed a number of government officials, economists, institutional researchers. The multi-party view generally believes that although the annual economic growth rate will remain above 9%, the GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarters will continue to decline compared with the second quarter. Therefore, the macroeconomic policies in the fourth quarter should be stable and calm. Whether to fine-tune next year, how to fine-tune it depends on the situation at the time, that is to say, take a step to see.

Growth slows down in the third and fourth quarter GDP growth rate or continuous decline

“The growth rate in the third quarter of this year may be lower than that in the second quarter, and close to 9% in the fourth quarter,” said Chen Jiagui, director of the economics department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This represents the general view of the current parties. If this judgment is established, China’s economic growth rate has shown a trend of declining quarter by year.

According to the "China Economic Situation Analysis and Forecast - Fall 2011 Report" released by the "China Economic Situation Analysis and Forecasting" group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on the 10th, the annual GDP growth rate in 2011 will reach 9.4%, compared with last year. 1 percentage point lower. If the international economic and political environment no longer deteriorates significantly in 2012, there will be no major natural disasters and other major problems in the country. The GDP growth rate is only expected to reach 9.2%.

However, the quarterly decline in GDP growth does not necessarily mean that China's economic growth has caused major problems. "We will release the data in two days. I can't say it specifically. However, from the current situation, the economic growth rate in the third and fourth quarters should be continuously decreasing. However, the GDP growth rate will not drop excessively. The annual growth rate is around 9.4%, and there is still no problem.” Wang Wenbo, deputy director of the Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the forum held by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Wang Wenbo said that the National Bureau of Statistics recently sent investigation teams to Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other provinces to investigate the situation. It was found that the so-called enterprise closure did exist, but it was still within the normal range and there was no large number of bankruptcies. Although companies generally reflect financial difficulties, this is an ever-present issue, and the situation of enterprises is not as difficult as propaganda.

Wang Yi, deputy director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, said that according to the central bank's investigation, Wenzhou's business owners, the main business, are not short of money, and the lack of money is to operate non-main business, such as going to Ordos to invest in minerals. The failure of these people to invest should pay the price.

Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, told the Economic Information Daily that the slowdown in domestic economic growth is likely to continue into the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, with the fall in price increases and the tightening of policy tightening, the economic growth rate It will stabilize, with an estimated economic growth rate of 9.3% in the third quarter and 9.1% in the fourth quarter. The annual economic growth should be maintained at around 9.4%. The slowdown in economic growth during the year was the result of active policy adjustments and was a moderate and controllable fall in the new economic cycle that began in the 12th Five-Year Plan. Although the external European and American debt crisis continues to ferment, leading to the deterioration of China's external economic environment, data such as investment and imports are still strong, which indicates that the endogenous power of domestic economic growth is still sufficient.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC China, also told the Economic Information Daily that under the influence of the lagging effect of the credit tightening policy, China's industrial activities may continue to slow down in the next few months, but will not fall sharply. Against the backdrop of a slowing world economy, China's economy is expected to maintain growth rates of around 8.5% to 9% in the next few years.

The main problem is to prevent external shocks and price recurrence

Speaking of the main problems facing the current Chinese economy, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' "China Economic Situation Analysis and Forecasting" research group believes that on the one hand, we must guard against the impact of world economic fluctuations on China, and on the other hand, we must continue to pay attention to future price trends. Prevent future price increases from rebounding.

First of all, we should be alert to the external risks caused by the European and American debt crisis and its impact. Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Economic Information Daily that in 2011, the world economy was affected by negative factors such as the European debt crisis, the Japanese earthquake and the weak US recovery. Economic institutions have also generally lowered their forecasts for world economic growth this year and next. Whether the global economy will bottom out again becomes a real problem. Even if the European and American economies do not experience a recession, the slow recovery will almost become a consensus. Global trade will have great uncertainty in the next one or two years.

"This round of crisis in developed countries in Europe and America is essentially a debt crisis. The European and American sovereign debt crisis is not limited to the public debt market, but involves the banking market and the foreign exchange market, affecting the global economy. The European and American debt crisis will be from the local market to the associated market or even the entire The economic system will affect China's future economic growth and stability through three channels. On the one hand, it will affect China's real economy through exports; on the other hand, it will affect China's economic stability through financial channels; at the same time, it will affect investment and consumer confidence." Li Xuesong said .

Second, we must maintain price stability. Although the market generally believes that the future price rise will fall back month by month, Chen Jiagui said that the current price decline still lacks a solid foundation and there is a possibility of rebound. Maintaining basic price stability is not only a major issue of people's livelihood. Under the current situation, it is also of great significance to maintain steady and rapid economic development, especially for SMEs to overcome immediate difficulties.

The research team believes that the factors that cause this round of inflationary pressure are the input inflationary pressure caused by the long-term implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, and the lag effect of the large domestic credit increase during the international financial crisis on the price increase. There are also emerging price increases due to various cost drivers.

At present, it is particularly important to pay attention to the factors driven by cost: First, the impact of input inflation factors. Western developed countries will adopt expansionary monetary and fiscal policies in the coming period, affecting the price structure of the world economy, and bringing inflationary pressures on China's economy that are difficult to regulate independently. Second, maintaining a modest increase in the price of agricultural products is a factor that needs to be accepted as a general increase in the price level. To increase the income of farmers, it is necessary to ensure the steady improvement of the prices of agricultural products. It is necessary to actively maintain the reasonable relationship between the increase in the price of grain purchase protection and the rise in the overall price level. Third, labor costs have risen.

  Policy orientation, macroeconomic regulation and control in the fourth quarter is stable

　　 Although the economic growth rate may fall back quarter by season, Chen Jiagui believes that it is impossible to compare the current economic situation in China with the situation at the time of the international financial crisis in the second half of 2008. “They have similarities and are also very different.”

Chen Jiagui told the Economic Information Daily that the similarities are all facing complex international economic situations. For example, this year there have been incidents such as the continuous expansion of US occupation of Wall Street activities, the continuous development of European sovereign debt, and the obstruction of Japan’s economic development. At the same time, macroeconomic policies have shifted from loose to tight, and this year a stable and loose monetary policy was introduced. This has led to a gradual decline in economic growth this year, with a 9.7% increase in the first quarter and a 9.5% increase in the second quarter, which may be lower in the third and fourth quarters.

However, there are more places different from 2008. First of all, the current economic situation in the United States is not a new problem emerging in the process of economic development, but the continuation of the 2008 crisis. Secondly, after the international financial crisis, the contribution of exports to China’s economic growth has fallen sharply in the past two years. This year’s contribution is expected to be negative. Therefore, although the decline of the world economy will have an impact on China’s exports, this impact will be far The land is lower than 2008. Again, although China's GDP growth rate has dropped this year, it is still within a reasonable range. If it is 9.4% for the whole year, it is only one percentage point lower than last year. Finally, China's experience in coping with changes in the international economic situation is becoming more and more abundant, and at the same time, it is more prepared for the complex economic situation.

Based on this understanding, Chen Jiagui believes that macroeconomic regulation and control policies should not be turned significantly. He said: "Proposals for macro-control measures can be retained, but in practice, stability should be the main focus, both to maintain direction, maintain continuity, and be cautious to ensure stability. For the fourth quarter GDP, We should wait and see what happens, and then decide whether to fine-tune the policy at the end of the year. If the annual GDP growth is about 9% and the price rises by about 4%, it should be neutral."

Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said that the world economy has not risen since the outbreak of the international financial crisis. It can be expected that the Chinese economy will fluctuate in the future, but there are no major problems. In view of the current complicated economic situation, various forecasting tools may not be fully used, and the forecast results may be biased, so the macro-control policy should take a step by step.

Wang Wenbo specifically pointed out that the National Bureau of Statistics found that the eastern coastal enterprises are more likely to accept the former between the implementation of the tight policy and the difficulty in implementing the easing policy and the sharp rise in raw material prices. "This shows that the current macro-control policies cannot be easily loosened."

Most institutions also hold similar views. For example, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, told the Economic Information Daily that although overseas economic losses are constant, China’s exports of about 20% are still quite normal, and the industrial added value of about 13% is still high. At 9% GDP growth. The new credit, which has a stable balance and a steady correction in growth rate, also clearly shows that the current economic growth situation has not yet deviated from the normal economic range. Recently, the statement of the senior officials of the central bank on China’s economy “continuing the rapid growth from the excessive growth of the previous policy to the independent growth” clearly implies that the current economic slowdown is precisely the return from “too fast to normal” and thus acceptable. . In the context of the current price hovering at 6%, the relaxation of the entire macro-control policy is still far away.  

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