Analysis: Forecast of Steel Consumption in 2012

Next year, China's steel consumption is expected to reach 650 million tons. In 2011, China's steel production and consumption continued to grow. The annual steel consumption was about 610 million tons. Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts that in 2012 China's steel consumption will reach 646 million tons. Among them, the demand for steel in the construction industry is 350 million tons, accounting for 54.2%.

Due to the slowdown in the global economic growth, the downstream steel industry has also slowed down in the future, and steel consumption in some industries has declined. The industry expects that steel for construction will continue to grow in 2012, but the intensity of steel consumption in railway and machinery industries will decline. With the gradual progress of restrictions on secondary steel bars by the policy and the need for the development of large-scale ships, the proportion of high-strength steel applications will be improved.

Construction steel keeps growing The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts that China's steel consumption in 2011 will be 610 million tons. Among them, the construction industry is 336 million tons, accounting for 55.1%; the machinery industry is 118 million tons, accounting for about 19.3%; the automotive industry is 40 million tons, accounting for 6.6%; the shipbuilding industry is 22 million tons, accounting for 3.6%. It is expected that in 2012, China’s steel consumption will reach 646 million tons. Among them, the construction industry is 350 million tons, accounting for about 54.2%; the steel, machinery, shipbuilding and automobile industries consume 128 million tons, 22 million tons and 44 million tons respectively.

It can be seen that the construction industry is still the major steel users in the future. According to the main areas of steel consumption, the construction industry is divided into housing construction, railways, highways and ports, mines, and urban infrastructure. In 2011, China's steel for housing construction maintained growth, and steel consumption reached 210 million tons. From the perspective of consumption of steel products, the consumption of high-strength steel bars maintained a significant growth trend under the guidance of all departments in the country and the requirements of construction companies to reduce steel consumption and improve building safety.

Under the influence of real estate purchase restrictions, developers will face high inventory and greater debt repayment pressure in 2012. The increase in the sales of commercial housing and the area under construction will continue to slow down, but the new construction of affordable housing will be 7 million sets. Therefore, the real estate construction area and completed area It will continue to grow, but there will be no significant growth in previous years. The industry predicts that the steel used for building construction in 2012 will reach 215 million tons. At present, China has explicitly proposed the elimination of secondary steel bars and promoted the use of three or more strength steel bars. The year 2012 is the second year of the implementation of the policy, and restrictions will be imposed on steel enterprises to produce secondary steel bars. For this reason, the application rate of high-strength steel bars in 2012 will increase significantly.

Mechanical shipbuilding slowdown Compared with the construction industry, the future demand for steel in the machinery and shipbuilding industries will slow down significantly.

According to the planning and research institute of the Metallurgical Industry, the steel consumption of the machinery industry in 2011 is expected to reach 118 million tons. In the main steel consumption sub-sector, the total consumption of steel for mechanical parts and components industry was 15.5 million tons, heavy machinery industry 15 million tons, general machinery industry 15 million tons, construction machinery industry 19 million tons and electrical appliances industry 19.5 million tons. There was no major change in the structure of steel consumption products, and the medium-thick plates, thin plates, high-quality bars and profiles were still the main components, and the proportion of high-strength mechanical plates in medium-thick plates increased.

The industry expects that the demand for the machinery industry will moderately fall in 2012, and the pressure of rising costs will continue to be maintained for a long time. At the same time, as the proportion of the output value of new products in the machinery industry to the total output value of the industry continues to increase, the intensity of steel consumption will decline.

In contrast, the shipbuilding industry will enter a more difficult period in 2012. The industry expects that steel consumption in the shipbuilding industry in 2012 will decline slightly. However, with the implementation of large-scale vessels and international safety and environmental protection regulations, the use of high-strength plates will gradually increase. At the same time, the lightening of the hull is the main approach for the development of new energy-saving and environmentally friendly ship types. In 2012, the demand for high-strength plates in the shipbuilding industry remained stable.

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