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“The third round of shale gas tendering is no longer possible this year, and it is estimated to be extended to the Spring Festival of 2014.†On December 19th, a Shenzhen oil service provider told 21st Century Business Reporter that the second round of shale gas project progress Slow, excessive drilling costs, environmental disputes, etc. are the main delay factors.
In July 2011, China announced the first round of shale gas winning list, and the second round of winning list was announced in December 2012. Earlier, the news said that the third round of tenders will be launched in December 2013, but the Ministry of Land and Resources has admitted that there is no exact timetable.
"I think this is a domestic performance of shale gas attitudes. China's shale gas market development is difficult to replicate the US 'shale gas revolution'." Cao Yu, director of the energy and power industry of The Martec Group, an internationally renowned consultancy, said Geologically determines the cost, and domestic shale gas development costs make it difficult to replace traditional energy sources on a large scale.
Behind the third round of shale gas tendering schedules, the controversy over environmental protection is on the rise. The World Energy Blue Book: World Energy Development Report (2013) (hereinafter referred to as the “Blue Bookâ€) released on December 19th stated that the development of shale gas environment and water resource utilization in China needs to be highly concerned.
Postponed third round of tendering
According to previous media reports, the Ministry of Land and Resources has initially drafted the third round of bidding blocks, mainly in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hubei. The rich resources in Erdos, Inner Mongolia, have not yet been determined whether to include this round of bidding.
Considering that the second round of bidding blocks is not attractive enough, the third round of bidding will be delineated in the western region. No matter from resource endowment or pipe network support, it will outweigh the second round of bidding that favors the central region. The state also gives 0.4 yuan at the same time. / cubic meter of financial subsidies.
"The key is that the cost problem is difficult to solve. This will allow everyone to carefully consider the situation of the third round of bidding. The Yibin Group (00196.HK) announced the Yibin shale gas drilling bill to pour a cold water for everyone." Cao Yu told In the 21st Century Business Herald, the cost of 17.3 million yuan and the drilling depth of 4115 meters are much higher than those of the United States.
The drilling cost accounts for 20%-30% of the single-port production cost of shale gas, which makes the total cost of domestic single-port production 50-80 million yuan, while the US is only about 25 million yuan; the US shale gas mine has more burial depth. In the 1000-2000 meters, more than 3,500 meters in western China, and the internal structure of the continental plate in which it is located is more difficult to explore and exploit.
Cao Yu explained that the shale gas well has a rapid attenuation layer, such as 10,000 cubic meters per day in the first year, 3,000 cubic meters per day in the second year, and 1500-2000 cubic meters in the third year. /day. "So it is critical that the first year's output will cover most of the cost."
On December 4, the National Energy Administration announced the latest progress in the exploration and development of shale gas in China. The data shows that the current shale gas demonstration zone and foreign cooperation zone of Sinopec and PetroChina have realized a total commercial volume of 143 million cubic meters. According to industry estimates, China's shale gas production will be close to 200 million cubic meters throughout 2013.
According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†of shale gas, it is necessary to initially realize large-scale production by 2015, and the output of shale gas will reach 6.5 billion cubic meters.
Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Research Center of Xiamen University, admitted to the 21st Century Business Report that the drilling and outgasing scale of domestic shale gas wells is lower than the industry expectation. The output in 2013 is still below the target of 2015. "How big can it be in the next two years? Breakthrough, I find it hard to stay optimistic."
Optimism and pessimism
According to the above-mentioned Shenzhen Oil Service Company, Shenhua’s 2D seismic exploration in the Baojing shale gas prospecting area in Hunan has been completed. Two wells are planned in the early stage and the drilling oil service suppliers are currently being selected. “Maybe in 2014 The tender will be held in January or even later."
“Currently, two-dimensional seismic exploration and field data collection in the three blocks of Chongqing, Lijiang, Xiangyang and Chengkou have been completed 90%. It is estimated that all work can be completed before the Spring Festival.†The source said that many second-phase winning projects such as Lin’an in Zhejiang Two-dimensional seismic exploration of shale gas blocks has just begun.
Li Wei, director of the Zhuo Chuang Information Natural Gas Industry Chain, said that after one year, the exploration progress of the second round of winning bidders is still very slow. None of the 19 companies have experience in oil and gas development. In addition, the resource conditions in the first round of the block are poor, and the cost of exploration and development is high. Many enterprises have not achieved the expected exploration progress, and some even retired.
There are pessimists and optimists. Zhang Dawei, director of the Mineral Resources Reserve Evaluation Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, said that the second round of bidding projects will have a number of wells in the first quarter of 2014. "The production target of 6.5 billion cubic meters of the 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan' is very optimistic, not only can be completed, but also excess, 10 billion cubic meters are possible."
According to the reporter's understanding, as the bidding for the third round of shale gas prospecting rights is about to begin, the shale gas reserve evaluation standard drafted by the Ministry of Land and Resources is nearing completion and will be released at the end of the year or in January next year.
In addition to the changes in the bidding block and market access, the third round of shale gas tendering will be transformed in terms of mineral rights withdrawal mechanism, supporting pipe network and government supervision.
At present, oil giants such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Yanchang Petroleum may participate collectively. Power groups such as Huadian and Guodian, local state-owned enterprises and some private enterprises also expressed interest.
Environmental pressure is coming
It is worth noting that when the third round of bidding timetable was not settled, the "Blue Book" jointly published by the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Science Literature Publishing House pointed out that the development of the national shale gas is still in the exploration stage. The regulatory system such as environmental protection has not yet been put on the agenda.
Chen Yongjian, Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong China Gas, revealed to the 21st Century Business Herald that the development of shale gas technology is relatively mature in the United States. China Gas is undergoing extensive inspections on technology, including technologies from Australia and other countries. The company is also interested in shale gas development, but is more concerned about the impact of project development on the environment and the public.
The "Blue Book" pointed out that there are four problems and contradictions in the development of shale gas in China: the resource situation has not been clarified; the key core technologies have not yet been mastered; the resource management mechanism and related policy support need to be improved; the infrastructure is weak and the ground construction conditions are poor.
Cao Yu told reporters in the 21st Century Economic Report that environmental problems caused by shale gas mining have attracted the attention of US environmentalists, and their inadvertent mining may lead to earthquake risk caused by cracking of the stratum.
In the past 2013, nearly 10,000 earthquakes in the shale gas mining area in Arkansas in the United States occurred nearly one year, and even earthquakes with magnitude 3 or higher occurred in areas with more unstable geological conditions. Frequent small earthquakes caused panic and dissatisfaction among local people, which led to the emergence of a large number of class actions.
“The development of shale gas has undergone 60-80 fractures, resulting in lubrication and reefing between rock formations and rock formations. However, there is no research and demonstration in the shale gas mining whether it causes earthquake risk. "Cao Wei said that earthquake research is more difficult than water resources. There are many organizations in the United States to study and put forward more comprehensive data. "If there is no such data in China, how do you convince oil companies, decision makers and the public? â€
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The third round of shale gas bidding delayed the environmental issue and was controversial
On December 5th, the Tongren shale gas block in Tongren, Guizhou Province was officially opened. This is the first project in the 19 second round of shale gas winning blocks to enter the stage of substantial exploration and development. At that time, the results of the bidding have been released. It has been a year old.