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China Economic Net Zhongshan October 25 (Li Yusi) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the third quarter. The total import and export volume in the first three quarters was 157.8 billion US dollars, down 20.9% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 846.6 billion US dollars, down 21.3%; imports were 711.2 billion US dollars, down 20.4%; surplus was 135.5 billion US dollars, down 45.5 billion US dollars. Foreign trade continued to decline, and the decline was significantly narrowed.
Zhang Xiaoji, Minister of Foreign Economic Research of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that China's annual export decline is expected to further narrow. It is expected that the annual export growth will be about 17%, and next year's export growth will be around 10%, but it is difficult to return to the highest point of the previous year.
This year's decline is expected to further narrow
Zhang Xiaoji made this point at the China Casual Wear Forum. He believes that in the third quarter of 2009, exports in a single month exceeded $100 billion for three consecutive months. However, due to the high base in the same period last year, the year-on-year decline in exports was still greater than 20%. From the feedback of export enterprises, foreign orders have increased significantly and the order period has been lengthened. Therefore, the monthly export in the fourth quarter is expected to remain above 100 billion US dollars. It is not excluded that the monthly export may show positive growth year-on-year. The negative growth of exports is about 17%, and the situation is still grim.
"But the risk is organic, the market share of China's products in the major western countries has risen, indicating that the relative competitiveness is not reduced," Zhang Xiaoji said. According to the statistics of the importing countries, from January to August 2009, China accounted for 18.8% of the total US imports, up from 16.1% in 2008. From January to May, although China's textile and apparel exports fell by 11.13% year-on-year, international competitiveness is still rising, and its share in the US import market has even increased by 3.75 percentage points.
In the case of a bad global economy, resource prices are relatively low, which is also conducive to China's economy to reduce costs.
In addition, as the economic crisis has the greatest impact on export enterprises, the role of the market in the survival of the fittest is more obvious, and the export structure will be further improved. “Before the government-protected companies have not experienced storms, the backward production capacity has not been eliminated, and this crisis will be a good opportunity.â€
Exports face two major challenges next year
What is the export situation next year? Zhang Xiaoji believes that China’s export growth will be around 10% next year, but it is difficult to return to the export high point of the previous year.
The main reason is that the global economic recovery is still slow. The economic and financial systems of developed countries have yet to be repaired, the consumption patterns of American households have changed, and the savings rate has continued to rise. Therefore, it is difficult for global trade to re-enter the rapid growth track before the crisis next year.
He pointed out that the challenges facing export growth next year mainly come from two aspects. First, there is pressure for appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; second, trade protectionism is likely to rise further and trade protection. According to the latest statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, from January to August this year, a total of 17 countries and regions initiated 79 trade remedy investigations against China, with a value of about 10.035 billion US dollars, up 16.2% and 121.2% respectively.
"Next year's foreign trade policy goal should shift from "stable external demand" to promoting the transformation of economic structure and growth mode, making full use of the external market to optimize resource allocation. This year's key external demand, and next year's main task is to seize opportunities and use the market to pick up And the opportunity to expand market share makes the industrial structure more reasonable."
Foreign trade stimulus policy should not be withdrawn
Many people worry that foreign trade stimulus policies may withdraw as the economy recovers. "There is no such problem in our country, because many of the current policies for asking external demand are neutral, and they are in line with the WTO principles. They are aimed at the fact that trade has not kept up with trade development." Zhang Xiaoji said . At the same time, frequent adjustment of the export tax rebate rate not only increases the export risk of enterprises, but also is easily misunderstood as export subsidies and encounters trade protection of other countries. Therefore, he believes that these policies should become long-term policies and should not be withdrawn.
"The only concern now is whether the finances have the conditions to support full tax rebates," Zhang said. In 2008, China imposed a value-added tax on imported goods, a consumption tax of 739.107 billion yuan, and a value-added tax on export goods and a consumption tax of 586.59 billion yuan. From January to September this year, the value-added tax on imported goods and consumption tax fell by 8% year-on-year, and the tax rebate on foreign trade exports increased by 16%. It is expected that the fiscal balance of the import and export in the whole year will be basically balanced.
In response to this problem, he believes that the state should first adjust the central and local sharing mechanism for export tax rebates, and restore the export tax rebate to be uniformly burdened by the central government, so as to alleviate the large scale of export and the pressure on local financial burdens in the eastern coastal areas. Difficulties, the Eastern Port Foreign Trade Company is encouraged to acquire products from the Central and Western regions. In addition, in view of the extension of the current export collection and collection period, the “reimbursement after tax refund†should be fully implemented, and the verification procedure can be considered in the future.
In addition, Zhang Xiaoji also proposed to use financial means to promote exports, must pay attention to improve the export credit insurance system, open commercial insurance companies to operate export credit insurance business. At present, the global trade volume of 12% to 15% is completed with the support of export credit insurance, developed countries reach 20% to 30%, the UK's support rate is 45%, and Japan's support rate is as high as 50%. In the first half of 2009, China's export credit insurance underwriting reached US$24.61 billion, and its support for exports was only 4.7%, less than half of the world average.
It is estimated that the export growth rate will increase by 10% next year.
Zhang Xiaoji: It is estimated that the export growth rate will increase by 10% next year.