In December 2013, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 51.0%, down 0.4% from the previous month. Meanwhile, the final value of China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI in December was 50.5%, a three-month low, indicating that the future economic growth will steadily decline. And the steel market has entered the off-season and market demand has shrunk. It is expected that this week (2014.1.6-1.10), the domestic steel market will maintain a downward trend.

According to the weekly price forecast model of the Information Research Center, this week (2014.1.6-1.10), domestic steel market prices will continue to fluctuate and decline. The market price of long products will weaken steadily and the plate market price will decline slightly. The national steel price index is expected to fluctuate around 137.9 points. The average price of steel is around 3580 yuan, with an average fluctuation of about 20 yuan. Among them, the long product price index is expected to fluctuate around 154.5 points, and the slight fluctuation will decline by about 0.3 points; the sheet price index is expected to It fluctuates around 118 points, slightly falling by about 0.3 points.

According to the market research data of the Information Research Center, this week (2014.1.6-1.10), the prices of domestic long products will weaken steadily, and the plate market price will decline slightly; the raw material market price will steadily weaken, and the iron ore market price will The market price of coke will decline slightly, the market price of scrap steel will decline steadily or slightly, and the billet market price will decline steadily or slightly.

1. The domestic steel market fluctuates slightly this week. In the first week of 2014 (2013.12.30-2014.1.3), the national comprehensive steel price index reached 138.2 points, a decrease of 0.48% from the previous week and a decrease of 7.32% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long steel price index was 154.8 points, down 0.64% from last week and 4.76% lower than the same period of last year. The LGMI sheet price index was 118.3 points, down 0.24% from last week and 11.09% from the same period of last year.

According to the market monitoring of the Information Research Center, the price changes of 17 categories of 44 specifications (varieties) of steel raw materials and steel products in some parts of the country in the first week of 2014 were as follows: Market prices of major steel products fluctuated slightly, compared to last week. The rising varieties increased slightly, the flat varieties increased significantly, and the falling varieties decreased significantly. Among them, 4 varieties rose, 2 more than last week; 36 were flat, 15 more than last week; 4 varieties fell, 17 kinds less than last week. The price of domestic iron and steel raw materials market fluctuated within a narrow range. The iron ore market price rose steadily by 5 yuan, the coke and scrap market prices remained stable, and the billet market price rose steadily by 10 yuan.

2. The national steel society stocks continued to rise this week. At present, the national steel society stocks continue to rise. Among them, the rising speed of building materials stocks has accelerated, and the decline in sheet stocks has slowed slightly. According to the market research conducted by the Information Research Center, on January 3, steel society stocks in 29 key cities nationwide were 12.5259 million tons, an increase of 130,600 tons over the previous week, up 1.05%, slightly faster than the increase rate of last week, 0.94 percentage point. From the perspective of sub-categories: China's wire rod social inventories was 1,133,600 tons, up 0.04% over the previous week, a 3.21 percentage point slower than last week's rise rate, an increase of 7.92% over the previous month and a decrease of 4.49% over the same period last year; Rebar's social inventory was 4,727,300 tons, up by 3.36% from the previous week, an increase of 2.38 percentage points over the previous week, an increase of 4.77% from the previous month and a decrease of 5.43% from the same period of last year; the social inventory of the coil was 31.48 Tens of thousands of tons, up 1.64% from the previous week, a slight acceleration of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week's rise, an increase of 3.70% over the previous month, a decrease of 10.84% ​​over the same period last year; HRC social inventories of 3.5402 million tons, than It fell 1.73% last week, a slight acceleration of 0.33 percentage points from the previous week's decline, 1.73% from the previous month and 15.35% from the same period of last year; the volume of CRC's social inventory was 1.5711 million tons, 0.11% lower than last week. %, a slight slowdown of 0.72 percentage points from the previous week's decline rate, a decrease of 1.69% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.37% from the same period of last year; the plate stock volume in the plate was 1,288,800 tons, up by 0.76% from last week. The week's decline turned to rise, compared to the previous month 4.76%, down 1.39% over last year.

3. Focus on market factors this week Macroeconomics:

[Industrial Profit] From January to November 2013, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 13.2% over the same period of last year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.3338 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage point lower than that in the first ten months, of which, the main activity profit was 5370.7 billion yuan. Yuan, which has increased by 4.4% over the same period of last year. The growth rate has dropped by 1 percentage point from January to October. In November, industrial enterprises above designated size realized total profit of 707.48 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7 percent over the same period of last year. The growth rate was 5.4 percentage points lower than that in October, of which, the main activity profit was 681.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% from the same period of last year, and 10 Monthly profit from main activities increased by 6% over the same period of last year. From January to November, among 41 industrial sectors, profit from main activities of 27 industries increased compared with the same period of last year, profit from main activities of 12 industries decreased compared with the same period of last year, and losses from main activities of the two industries changed from the same period of last year. profit.

[PMI] China's manufacturing PMI was 51.0% in December 2013

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December 2013 issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey was 51.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI fell in December, predicting a steady decline in economic growth in the future. The new orders, backlogs, and export orders all declined in different degrees, reflecting a slight drop in market demand; the finished goods inventory index and the purchasing volume index showed a decline, indicating that companies are still cautious about the future market. In light of these circumstances, it is expected that the industrial growth rate will decline in the future, and the growth rate of exports may also decline. There is still a certain downward pressure on economic growth.

[PMI] HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Final Value 50.5% in December 2013

In December 2013, the final value of China's HSBC manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, a three-month low, and remained above 50 for 10 consecutive months. China's December HSBC manufacturing new export order final value of 49.1%, the lowest level in four months. The slowdown in the final PMI in December was mainly due to the decline in the output of the manufacturing industry. However, supported by the steady growth of new orders, this time it is still above the 50 line for five consecutive months.

Industry News:

[Nine days of crude steel] The national crude steel output of 2.0143 million tons in the middle of December 2013 increased by 0.1% from the previous month

According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-December, the daily production of crude steel by key steel enterprises reached 1,691,100 tons, which fell by 0.2% compared with the previous period, and was forecasted to reach 1,204,300 tons in the country, up by 0.1% from the previous month. At the end of mid-December, the key statistics for iron and steel enterprises were 13.8222 million tons of steel inventories, an increase of 611,000 tons or 4.6% from the previous ten days.

【PMI】In December 2013, the steel and steel industry PMI total index was 47.5%

The Information Research Center reported that the steel industry's PMI total index for December was 47.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous quarter, indicating that the demand was relatively weak, and the market activity of the steel and aluminum industry decreased. The sub-index shows that the increase in inventories and the decrease in downstream orders, but the steel trading companies are still bullish attitude, the willingness to purchase will not diminish. The overall judgment on steel demand in January weakened.

Downstream demand:

【Machinery】In January-November 2013, the total investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry totaled 3.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.45%.

According to statistics from the China Machinery Industry Federation, from January to November, the total investment in fixed assets of machinery industry totaled 3.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.45%, a slight decrease of 0.29 percentage points from January to October (17.74%), showing a steady state trend. . In November, the investment in machinery industry increased by 15.85%, which was 10.47 percentage points lower than the growth rate in October (26.32%).