Although China's high-tech industry and strategic emerging industries have shown steady development throughout the year in 2013, we must enhance our sense of urgency while fully affirming our achievements. Judging from the current situation, the development of China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries is not only restricted by some long-term and deep-level problems, but also faces some new situations and new problems. It is necessary to closely follow and take corresponding measures.

1. Difficulties in the development of high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries

First, the profit rate of the industry and enterprises has dropped significantly.

The rapid pace of capacity expansion has led to increasingly fierce market competition, as well as the rising cost of factors, and the new management of some industries has led to a significant increase in operating costs and a continuous decline in profit margins. On the one hand, more and more companies and capital are tempted by the relatively high expected industry gross margins in some strategic emerging industries, lower industry entry thresholds and broad potential markets, and “tangible hands at all levels of government”. "Support the competition to enter the relevant industry sectors. The “leap-forward” development that does not master the core technology has not only triggered explosive growth in production capacity in some areas, but the increasingly fierce competition will inevitably lead to the continuous decline of product prices and dilute industry profits.

For example, the current LED industry's gross margin is only about 20%, while the net profit is less than 5%. On the other hand, rising costs have led to a significant decline in corporate profits and increased pressure on companies to survive. With the arrival of "Lewis turning point", the history of China's long-term wages and unlimited supply of labor has ended, which will bring greater wage costs to China's high-tech enterprises that mainly undertake labor-intensive processing and assembly in the international division of labor. The upward pressure also makes the profit margin of electronics OEMs that rely on scale advantages and low cost advantages generally maintained at around 3%.

Second, the financing needs of SMEs cannot be met or the financing costs have risen significantly.

In 2013, the central bank repeatedly proposed “encouraging and guiding financial institutions to increase credit input to small and micro enterprises, and supporting qualified small and micro enterprises to issue debt financing instruments”. However, on the one hand, under the overall background of “anti-risk, de-leverage”, and the acceleration of financial disintegration under financial repression and the Fed’s gradual withdrawal from quantitative easing, the liquidity of China’s real economy has been tightened as a whole; On the other hand, under the soft budget constraint system, state-owned enterprises and urban investment are relatively insensitive to the cost of capital, which may form a crowding out effect on financing of other economic entities. Therefore, financing difficulties (unable to meet financing needs or rising financing costs) have become a fact that high-tech small and medium-sized manufacturing companies have to face.

Due to a series of challenges such as the return of manufacturing in developed countries and competition from other low-cost developing countries (such as India and Brazil), the profit margin of China's high-tech manufacturing industry has continued to decline. In particular, for high-tech small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises engaged in low value-added processing and assembly, the use of self-accumulated endogenous financing functions is inherently weak; the rise in exogenous credit financing costs that depend on survival will not only hinder China. The rapid expansion of high-tech small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, and the cost of private financing exceeds the upper limit of enterprises, the risk of bankruptcy due to the break of the capital chain will suddenly increase.

Third, the market has insufficient effective demand.

On the one hand, affected by the slow recovery of the world's major developed economies, international trade frictions are frequent and technical barriers are intensifying, and external demand continues to be insufficient. According to the independent trade monitoring organization Global Trade Alert, protectionist measures, including tariff increases, export restrictions and unfair regulatory adjustments, have increased dramatically, and China has become the biggest victim of global trade protectionism.

For example, in 2013, the European Union and the United States successively launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on high-tech fields such as communications equipment and photovoltaics in China, and restricted Chinese enterprises and related products from entering the US market on the grounds of national security, which brought serious problems to China's related fields. The negative impact. At the same time, although emerging markets such as South America, Africa and Southeast Asia have high long-term development value, in the short term, due to the problems of policy opacity and high implementation of policies, it is difficult to develop rapidly. On the other hand, the expansion of domestic demand is subject to the implementation of some new policies and institutional mechanisms.

For example, in the biological field, the total amount of medical insurance prepaid, zero-plus-expansion expansion, especially in the second half of the year, the anti-commercial bribery of the pharmaceutical industry has increased, and the increase in hospital drug use has been curbed to varying degrees. At the same time, due to the long time of domestic approval, etc., the process of listing innovative drugs and medical devices is very slow. Some enterprises apply at the same time at home and abroad. Instead, they take the lead in passing foreign certification, which affects the domestic market development of products.

In addition, the company reflects that a number of independent innovation products supported by the national high-tech industrialization specialization and major science and technology projects have achieved some breakthroughs in core technology, but the resistance to marketization is greater. For example, Zhonghao Optoelectronic Equipment (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. reflects that the large-scale production of LED MOCVD equipment produced by the company has advanced world level, but domestic manufacturers are reluctant to apply in large production lines, and the innovation results are facing difficulties in promotion.

2. Major problems in the development of high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries

From the perspective of the industry itself and the development environment, some long-term and deep-level problems have not been fundamentally resolved.

First, although the production capacity and output have been increasing, the industrial competitiveness is not strong.

Due to regional economic growth and political performance considerations, local governments have introduced support policies and subsidies as a new round of industrial investment, regardless of technology accumulation and regional actual conditions. The “leap-forward” development in some emerging fields is mainly reflected in the rapid growth of indicators such as asset size, number of major equipment installations, and production capacity, rather than the enhancement of core technology capabilities and industrial competitiveness.

In general, China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries are mostly at the bottom of the international vertical division of labor system, the low end of the global value chain, lack of core competitiveness, and the industry is still not self-controllable. The role of the person.

Second, the lack of enterprise risk management capabilities, especially financial management capabilities, has amplified the industry crisis.

Despite the stimulation of various favorable policies in recent years, some areas of China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries have achieved “high-speed” development, but some domestic high-tech enterprises have weak awareness of risk management and lack of scientific risks. Management means not only leads to a lack of forward-looking decision-making, but also causes the risk of temporary business survival to be threatened. In particular, in the period of slowdown in the face of rapid decline in market demand, the aggressive expansion of “small and large” with heavy scale, light benefits and good risks has led to high debt ratios of some enterprises. When the industry is in a development bottleneck, the excessive debt ratio makes it easy for companies to fall into the loan crisis and increase business risks.

For example, Wuxi Suntech, Jiangxi Saiwei, Chaori Sun, Sunflower and other well-known enterprises in the field of photovoltaics, Shenzhen Yiguang, Shifang Optoelectronics, Guzhen Xiongji, Leixing Optoelectronics, Barcoguang Technology and other established companies in the LED field have fallen into Development dilemma. It should be said that the causes of the above-mentioned corporate crisis include the external causes of sudden changes in the market and overcapacity, as well as the cumulative internal factors such as the radical expansion of enterprises and the out-of-control of risk management.

Third, the policy environment for industrial development needs to be further improved.

On the one hand, the imperfect national standards, norms and testing systems have made it difficult to cultivate effective market demand. In view of the maturity and rapid development of technologies related to strategic emerging industries, countries around the world have introduced relevant technical regulations or standards, and have imposed mandatory certification requirements for strategic emerging industry key products.

For example, in the field of LED lighting, the US LED lighting TBT notification council has specified methods for measuring LED lamp lumen output, input power and relative spectral distribution. In addition, a method of measuring the luminous flux maintenance rate of the LED light source is also specified to predict the rated life of the LED lamp. Despite being praised as a “standard year” by people in the lighting industry in 2013, China's LED industry still lacks national standards recognized by the industry, and the testing system has not yet been established, resulting in an endless stream of current LED industry standards and disorderly competition. Signs of increased chaos. In the field of photovoltaic power generation, compared with the United States, Germany and Japan, China's distributed photovoltaic power generation grid-connected technology still lacks uniform and high-quality standards, and the published standards are lower, which will bring about the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China. Negative Effects.

On the other hand, improper incentives for local government industrial policies have caused overcapacity in some emerging sectors. The GDP-oriented performance appraisal mechanism and the unreasonable fiscal decentralization system, as well as the development of high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries are in line with the current national strategic orientation, which has caused governments at all levels to intervene excessively in industrial development and confuse the government. And the boundaries of the market. For example, in the fields of LED and photovoltaic, a large number of enterprises and capitals are supported by a series of preferential policies such as land use, loans and tax subsidies. The pace of capacity expansion is too fast, and some degree of low-end and inefficiency has emerged.

At the same time, when the industrial development is in a difficult position, due to the actual problems such as debt processing and personnel resettlement, the exit barriers are relatively high, which makes it difficult for the production capacity in the excess field to be eliminated by the market law, which further exacerbates the overcapacity in the relevant industry sectors. .

This year's high-tech and strategic emerging industry development environment

Taking into account international and domestic factors, in 2014, the uncertainties facing the development of China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries have further increased, leading to an industry optimism. Compared with previous years, 2014 is likely to become a difficult year for the development of China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries, which requires us to closely follow and take corresponding measures.

From the international situation, first, market demand is not optimistic.

In the absence of breakthroughs in technological progress, it is expected that the global demand will not change in 2014. The friction in high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries will continue to escalate and the competition will become increasingly severe.

On the one hand, the IMF pointed out in the October 2013 World Economic Outlook report that looking forward to the future, global activities are expected to slowly increase, but the risks faced by the forecast are still biased downward. The short-term risks that caused the downside mainly include the euro zone's fall into the abyss, the US's budgetary entanglement, the tightening of fiscal policies in the US and emerging market economies, the sudden cut in capital flowing into emerging markets, and the soaring oil prices over a longer period of time.

On the other hand, in the context of an international macroeconomic situation in which economic stagnation may become the new normal, more political extremism will be triggered, and countries are more likely to implement a policy of beggar-thy-neighbour. The trade protectionism aimed at stimulating the development of domestic industries and promoting employment is still grim. In November 2013, the EU began to impose a temporary anti-dumping duty of 17.1%-42.1% on Chinese solar glass. According to the regulations, EU member states will vote in May 2014 to levy a five-year permanent anti-dumping on Chinese solar glass. tax.

Taking the bio-industry as an example, the UK Medicines and Health Products Administration issued a news report that the unregistered herbal products will be completely banned from April 30, 2014, which means that the proprietary Chinese medicines in the UK market will exit the UK market. .

Second, the new development trend of the global development pattern is not conducive to the industry to get rid of passive and dependent status.

In the current world economic situation, developed countries have put forward the "re-industrialization strategy" in an attempt to achieve the return from "industry hollowing out" to "re-industrialization." At the same time, the world is welcoming the third industrial revolution, an industrial revolution based on the combination of the Internet and new materials and new energy. It is centered on “digital manufacturing” and will make global technological elements And revolutionary changes in the way market elements are deployed.

The development of China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries not only faces a series of challenges such as competition from developed countries and other low-cost developing countries (such as India and Brazil), but advanced manufacturing technologies will also put forward new requirements for industrial development. As China's factor costs continue to rise and traditional comparative advantages continue to weaken, the situation of relying on developed countries to pull the growth engine into the past is changing.

How to realize the transition from low value-added, labor-intensive mode to the pursuit of high value-added and high-tech mode, realize the transformation from Chinese manufacturing to China, and realize the transition from the passive recipient role to the dominant role. China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries must face and think about problems for a long period of time.

Third, the Fed's monetary policy may increase the risks faced by industrial development.

The Fed began to withdraw after five years of “quantitative easing”, which means that the credit tightening of the global financial system is likely to trigger changes in capital flows and have a profound impact on domestic high-tech industries that rely on foreign capital.

On the one hand, the future real economy's market expectation for the capital side will show a fundamental change from tight to tight, and the tight capital situation will continue; on the other hand, according to the interest rate parity theory, the rise of domestic financing costs will become a high probability. Event, short-term financing costs also approached 9% in December 2013. The joint effect of the two aspects will definitely increase the credit risk of high-leverage industries (enterprises) that rely on low-cost capital, and is also not conducive to long-term investment of the industry, which will hinder the sustainable development of China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries. .

From the perspective of the domestic situation, we thoroughly implemented the requirements of the 18th National Congress to adhere to the road of independent innovation with Chinese characteristics, deepen the reform of the science and technology system, improve the intellectual property system, implement major national science and technology projects, and strengthen demand orientation to promote the health of strategic emerging industries. Development will greatly promote the rapid development of China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries. However, we must also clearly understand that a series of policies for high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries will take a long time from implementation to implementation and effectiveness.

First, under the circumstances of insufficient external demand, the central government has increased the cultivation and support of the domestic market for emerging technology products.

Taking the bio-industry as an example, in October 2013, the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Promoting the Development of Health Service Industry” (Guo Fa [2013] No. 40), aiming at maintaining and promoting the physical and mental health of the people, involving medical services and health management. In the fields of health insurance (safety insurance) and related services, relevant fields will usher in development opportunities. By 2020, the total size of the health service industry will reach 8 trillion yuan.

Taking the new energy industry as an example, in July 2013, the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry” (Guo Fa [2013] No. 24), and the “12th Five-Year Plan” installed plan was originally set at 20GW. Increase to 35GW. Taking the energy conservation and environmental protection industry as an example, in September 2013, the State Council issued the “Notice on Printing and Controlling Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” (Guo Fa [2013] No. 37), setting a binding urban air quality improvement for the city. The target stipulates a series of specific measures to control pollution, such as improving fuel quality and regional coal-fired ceiling. The above-mentioned policy requirements for air pollution control will be transformed into market demand for energy-saving and environmental protection industry development, which is conducive to the development of China's energy-saving and environmental protection industry.

The second is the establishment and construction of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Through the opening up and the reform of the domestic system level, it is necessary to explore and establish a market economy environment that is in line with international standards, free and open, and encourages innovation, and realizes mechanisms and systems. Comprehensive innovation and upgrades.

As a free trade platform with the world and a more open platform, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone will truly make the "market play a decisive role in resource allocation", and will surely face China's high-tech industries and strategies in terms of foreign investment, transformation and upgrading, and modern enterprise systems. The sustainable and rapid development of emerging industries has brought far-reaching impact. At the same time, on December 28, 2013, the Sixth Session of the Standing Committee of the 12th National People's Congress passed the amendments to the “Company Law of the People's Republic of China”, which eliminated the provisions on minimum registered capital, which not only made all the technology funded or other can be evaluated. The physical contribution has become a reality, and it also helps to encourage individual entrepreneurship, and contributes to the improvement of innovation capabilities and the establishment of enterprises in high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries.

Third, the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform" issued by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee demonstrated a comprehensive reform plan, and industrial development is expected to accelerate the realization of "from low-cost advantages to innovative advantages. The government is leading the shift from market-oriented to scale-up to quality growth.

High-tech industries such as medicine, new energy, new materials, and high-end equipment manufacturing are also expected to benefit from the deepening of reform. Taking the bio-industry as an example, with the gradual advancement of medical reform to the deep-water area, the reform of medical insurance payment methods (including the control fees, the promotion of clinical pathways, etc.), the reform of public hospitals, the adjustment of medical service prices, and the gradual intervention of private capital or Will gradually break the ice, which will promote the bio-industry into the golden period of development.

Taking the high-end equipment manufacturing industry as an example, with the further development of low-altitude airspace management reform, not only China's general aviation market is expected to usher in a rapid development period, but also aviation ground equipment and supporting equipment, air traffic control systems, aviation operations and maintenance services, and general aviation. Areas such as aircraft manufacturing will also enter a period of important strategic opportunities.

Comprehensive analysis of various factors affecting the development of China's high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries, we believe that China's high-tech industry is expected to maintain steady and rapid growth next year, and the growth rate can be maintained at more than 10%, but the growth rate Will be lower than 2013.

Promote stable growth of high-tech and strategic emerging industries

At present, China's economy is facing a transition from rapid growth to scientific development. It faces a breakthrough in the role of “global value chain”, that is, it challenges the original division of labor in the international value chain, and is at a critical moment of innovation-driven development. In order to promote relatively stable and high-quality growth of high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries, combined with the current situation, it is recommended to strengthen the selection and cultivation of major technologies, accelerate the transformation of industrial policies, and focus on improving the industrial development environment. .

1. Strengthen the selection and cultivation of major technologies

For high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries, the focus of development is not only to grow bigger, but to have core technologies. Therefore, to avoid "wearing new shoes and taking the old road", we must give full play to the "support" and "lead" role of major technologies in China's economy and society, and we must face up to the choice and cultivation of major technologies. It is necessary to proceed from the stage in which they are located, taking into account the differences in development stages and the different endowment resources.

The so-called major technology should mean that its technological status is at the core and key position among many technologies. The specific measurement mainly includes three levels: one is whether it is basic, the second is whether it is public, and the third is whether it is strategic. Although the government's goal is not to replace the market judgment with government judgment on the question of which potential “successor” to support; however, we must determine whether “no intervention” is sufficient to enable our country to build effective technical capabilities. Therefore, the government should play the role of the situation, reduce the mistakes caused by ignorance, and increase the possibility of success.

2. Accelerate the transformation of industrial policy

In actively promoting the development of high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries, it is necessary to strengthen the research and analysis of global dynamics and industrial development in China, and share research and analysis results with the locals in a timely manner to guide local analysis. Under the premise of market allocation of resources, governments at all levels should play more roles as “planners” and “servers” rather than “leaders”.

More general policies should be introduced, instead of sacrificing limited financial support, protection, and preferential “stars” enterprises that are “big but not down”. More attention should be paid to the improvement of the company's international competitiveness, rather than simple capacity increase. At the same time, if the development of the industry is to achieve self-reliance, the support of policies must be timely and appropriate. On the basis of taking into account the stage of industrial development and the mission of policy support, it is necessary to clarify the nodes that withdraw from the opportunity and avoid excessive dependence on the policies of industrial development.

3. Focus on improving the industrial development environment

On the basis of full argumentation and solicitation of opinions, strengthen international cooperation and absorb existing local standards and existing standards in other countries, rationally formulate standard systems and testing systems suitable for industrial development, promote technological progress, and guide the healthy development of the industry. Under the guidance of the principles of openness, transparency and fairness, through strict government and industry standards, in particular, we must regulate industry investment in terms of energy consumption, environmental protection requirements, and safe production, and learn from Japan’s policy measures to eliminate backward production capacity, and accelerate the phase-out of industries. The backward production capacity formed in the “leap-forward” development is conducive to the improvement of resource allocation efficiency.

In the context of supporting the development of the real economy by activating the credit and credit stocks, the key to transmitting credit to the required targets is to vigorously develop local small and medium-sized banks or policy banks, and actively develop new Internet-based financial products to better serve high The actual needs of technical SMEs. At the same time, in the context of high-tech enterprises facing more complex and ever-changing domestic and international business environment, it is necessary not only to make enterprises aware of the importance of risk management, but also to shift the focus of development from scale expansion to value creation, and to guide enterprises to strengthen risk management. Capacity building.

Automatic Magnetic Door

Magnet Doors,Automatic Close Magnetic Door,Automatic Soft Screen Magnetic Door,Automatic Magnetic Door

Caesar door control co.,ltd , https://www.caesar-door.com