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Liu Ligang, chief economist of ANZ Greater China, said that China's November trade data reflects recent improvements in US and European data. Imports slowed significantly in November, which partly indicates that China’s domestic demand may be relatively low. He also said, "It is possible to complete the annual 8% trade growth target, but due to the obvious export inflated problems in the trade data in the first half of this year, it is not overly optimistic to accomplish this goal."
"Exceeding expectations are mainly due to the improvement of the global economic situation, especially the recovery of the US economy and the gradual recovery of the European sovereign crisis, which has led to a turnaround in the global economic situation," said Hu Jiangyun, a researcher at the Foreign Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. He also expects that there will be no major changes in the import and export situation throughout the year.
Exports far exceeded expectations, pushing China’s trade surplus to $33.8 billion in November, not only higher than the $31.1 billion last month, but also the highest level since January 2009. The trade surplus in the first 11 months has reached $244.1 billion, compared with a total surplus of $231.1 billion last year.
“Over the full year, the trade surplus may exceed US$240 billion, which will hit the peak since 2008, which has caused a great appreciation pressure on the RMB.†Liu Ligang said that it is necessary to note that the excessive appreciation of the RMB has obviously eroded Chinese companies. Trade competitiveness. If the central bank still maintains a relatively tight monetary policy, the market interest rate will remain high, which may result in a larger inflow of hot money and increase the possibility of RMB appreciation.
Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shenyin Wanguo, believes that the inflow of hot money has its positive side: China's economic fundamentals are stabilizing and the reform prospects are good, which attracts hot money back. “General hot money inflows are mainly achieved by lowering imports and raising exports. This is precisely the reason that imports are lower than expected in November and exports are higher than expected. When the gourd floats, the hot money can always find a way to come in, but It is clear that this is based on the judgment of China's economic prospects," he said.
China’s trade surplus in November reached its highest level in five years
Abstract The improvement of the global economic situation has driven China's export market to be active. Yesterday, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in November was 370.609 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.3% over the same period of last year, of which the export growth rate reached 12.7%, higher than the previous month's 5...
The improvement of the global economic situation has driven China's export market to be active. Yesterday, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in November was 370.609 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.3% over the same period of last year, of which the export growth rate reached 12.7%, higher than the previous month's 5.6%, far exceeding market expectations. The trade surplus in November expanded to $33.8 billion, a record high of nearly five years.