In the past year of 2014, it was called "the first year of robots", and a large number of companies entered the field of robots in different ways. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2014, more than 70 listed companies have merged or invested in robots and intelligent automation projects. The number of enterprises in the overall market has reached 4,000, and the situation is almost out of control.

At the 2015 International Consumer Electronics Show, a beautiful robot from Toshiba Corporation of Japan was amazing. The realistic form combined with sophisticated human-computer interaction function not only took away the limelight of all kinds of mediocre mobile phones at the exhibition. Also with the influence of CES, once again, the robot practitioners around the world are imagining, and the taste of the huge cake is getting more and more fragrant, and it has been floating to the mainland of China on the other side of the ocean.

Nowadays, China's robot industry is very hot, and it has been too hot to be fired. In the past 2014, it was called "the first year of robots", and a large number of companies entered the field of robots in different ways. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of 2014, more than 70 listed companies have merged or invested in robots and intelligent automation projects. The number of enterprises in the overall market has reached 4,000, and the situation is almost out of control. But China's emerging industries have never ceased to be discussed within the scope of science and technology, always accompanied by quarrels, subsidies and bubbles. It is as if they are not experiencing saliva and cannot tolerate shuffling, and China cannot establish a stable order.

In addition, the state also attaches great importance to the layout of the robot industry. The subsidy is very attractive, probably about 30% of the total investment. This also increases the speed of capital entering the field to a certain extent, and even causes the situation of squatting subsidies. People think of the scene of "a group of rushing porridge shops and nests."

How is the robot bubble made?

There is no doubt that the robot application has a very good scene. Even the famous future company Google has quietly acquired some small robot technology companies, and his partner Foxconn has been trying to introduce a large number of robots on the assembly line. Household and service robots have entered the people's field of vision, which has given investors a beautiful picture.

There is no problem in the development direction and market potential assessment, but the problem lies in the impetuous mentality of Chinese robot practitioners. Obviously, the robot is a comprehensive and diversified platform. Even if it can make the robot 95% similar to the natural person, it only completes one-third of the task. The bigger challenge comes from the related technology. In fact, robots need to replace the manual work to complete adaptive work, which requires a large amount of data calculation and command analysis. Sensors, measurement strength and other technologies also need to be developed in order to achieve. The problem lies in many operating methods, such as the soft cable of iPhone6. Assembling, at the current level, mathematical modeling cannot be completed. Even for simple welding, it is divided into electric welding, arc welding, etc. Each processing component has its own characteristics. These technological developments require long-term precipitation of basic disciplines. .

It is also because of the bottleneck of supporting technology that the robots made in China are more like toys. The only areas that can be fully applied are the “small children”. In addition, the nature of China's robotic bubble is also reflected in the lack of core technology, just like a smart phone. In fact, this is also the biggest drawback in China's science and technology field.

In fact, the most critical component of a robot product should be the servo system and the reducer. These two things account for more than half of the cost of the entire robot. However, most of the related technologies are in foreign companies. The most abnormal thing is that The two Japanese companies have monopolized the 75% market share of global reducers, which is why Japan is the most developed robot country, and now they can only create beautiful robots for entertainment.

In June last year, Softbank's Sun Zheng demonstrated the robot Pepper. The biggest highlight was to provide intimate family services to those who lack care. The strong technical support made Softbank ambitious. He vowed to let the robot have feelings and heart. Sun Zhengyi The idea is a bit of a whisper, and even the Chinese media can say the same thing. The only difference is that Softbank will engage in long-term research and development, and keep the dream close to reality. Moreover, the Japanese industrial robot has achieved quite good results: as early as the iPhone. At 4 o'clock, only the robots of Japan's FANUC could meet Apple's production specifications. Therefore, Guo Taiming purchased 1,000 such robots at a time, each of which was priced at 200,000 US dollars. That is to say, the iPhone 4 can be popular. The world must definitely give the Japanese a credit.

On the other hand, although Chinese robotics companies maintain rapid growth every year, no one can compare with Softbank or FANUC. As for mass commercialization, it is even more distant. What is even more terrifying is that the robot market is impetuous. Mentality, it is very easy for technicians to become commercial personnel, or become a state subsidized parasite, resulting in a growing gap in the technology field, the most tragic situation is like today's smart phones, high profits, low pollution All parts and components are produced in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, and China continues to act as a foundry. The only comfort is that the mature application of the robot and the mass production will take a long time. It may be 50 years or even hundreds of years. This time gives Chinese companies the chance to catch up, but it can’t really be So impetuous, so care about the subsidies in front of you.

Robot, the last time looking to the future

As mentioned above, the future prospects of robots are very good, but it takes a long time to be commercialized on a large scale, especially in Chinese enterprises, which cannot be realized in the short term. On the one hand, there is no breakthrough in the technical bottleneck; On the social side, robots are not allowed to replace natural labor with storms. As we all know, the labor cost in mainland China is rising year by year, but enterprises have to resettle these people for the society, and the manufacturing industry as a labor-intensive enterprise is also a large employer.

It is true that robots and supporting industries will bring a lot of new jobs, but at present China's vocational education is not enough to turn the line women workers into technical experts, rushing to replace them with robots, and it is likely to push them to Dongguan. In short, large-scale commercial use of robots is a long and arduous process that requires the coordinated development of technology, economy, and institutions. The negligence of any one factor will lead to "robot tragedy."

Of course, this does not prevent the author and the reader from looking forward to the future of the robot. After hoping to enjoy the good dreams of the future, the Chinese practitioners can start from the basic technology and cultivate the basic skills every day. When all the time is ripe, China is no longer just a robot factory.

In fact, a huge bubble can blow up, and naturally it is inseparable from a "logical" assessment. Moreover, the IQ of investors is not too low. Industrial robots are unquestionable, and they are bound to develop storms at an appropriate time, perhaps until the current line of women workers are married. These simple robots may be just one arm, but they can help people to do boring and heavy work, such as functional testing of the iPhone 6 plus, such as dangerous work in a dusty planer workshop, and with big data. With the development of technologies such as cloud computing and sensors, robots will further liberate human beings from heavy work. In that era, perhaps "labor" can really become the first demand of human beings. Those rich people will spend 200 yuan a day. The purpose is to find some work to do.

In addition, the beauty robots appearing at this CES exhibition also indicate the great potential of the entertainment, service and even the old-age robot market. In fact, some service robots have been introduced in China, and they can independently complete the work of a series of lobby managers such as welcome, number, business inquiry, business introduction, and customer guidance. At present, the relevant technology can fully meet these simple work needs, and it is a logical and healthy development! In addition to service robots, the old-age care robot has become a new hot topic of discussion.

According to the Civil Affairs Bureau of 2014, the number of elderly people over the age of 60 in China has exceeded 200 million, accounting for 14.9% of the total population. At present, China’s economic development is very uneven, resulting in young people unable to take care of their parents. In fact, they It may also be powerless. Therefore, helping young people in China to free themselves from heavy domestic chores and shackles is bound to become another important topic in this industry. In short, everything is very good, just take time to settle.

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