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The author believes that in fact, China's labor crisis is more serious than imagined.
Although China's working-age population still exceeds 900 million, in 2014, China's employment population was only 77.253 million. In addition to the unemployed population, minus a small number of people over the working age, China's labor force is about 800 million. The labor force is about 100 million less than the working-age population. Where are these 100 million people going?
In fact, in the working-age population series, but not the labor force, there are several major groups: one is a student over the age of 16 and the other is a population who has not retired to the statutory retirement age, especially the one we are familiar with. Aunts of square dances, many of them are working-age people who have withdrawn from social labor. After subtracting these two groups, we can find that the real labor situation in China is even more severe.
Although China's working-age population starts at 16 years old, China's social situation has changed dramatically in recent years. In the early days of the reform, most of China’s young people graduated from junior high school and went to society and became a labor force. By 2014, with the rapid expansion of Chinese universities, the rate of college enrollment in China has reached 80%, resulting in high school students and college students between the ages of 16 and 22 becoming non-economically active and not participating in employment.
The number of people in this group is relatively easy to estimate. The age of 16 is the age of enrollment in high school or secondary school and other vocational education. Therefore, the number of high school students, plus secondary school students, university students, and postgraduate students is the total number of this group.
In 2014, the number of ordinary high school students in China was 24.359 million. The number of students in secondary schools and vocational and technical schools like Lanxiang was close to 20 million. In ordinary full-time colleges, the number of students enrolled is 24.68 million, and the number of graduate students is about 1.79 million. In total, there are approximately 60 million students in the school gate between the ages of 16 and 20.
Another group represented by the "square dance aunt", although within the working-age population, does not participate in labor. This group is mainly composed of middle-aged and elderly women, and there are also some middle-aged and older men. It is expected that women under the age of 55 and men under the age of 60 will have at least tens of millions of people who retire and actually have no willingness to work.
The 100 million from the working-age population to the labor force actually reflects the insufficient gold content of the working-age population in China, and this situation will make the already severely low labor-raising ratio even worse, and China’s pension pressure in the future will be even worse. To be heavy.
More seriously, the labor force is a dynamic data. According to the Social Blue Book published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Analysis and Forecast of China's Social Situation in 2015, before 2020, China's working-age population will decrease by an average of 1.55 million annually; in 2020-2030, the annual average will be reduced by 7.9 million, 2030. In -2050, the annual average will be reduced by 8.35 million. In total, by 2050, China's working-age population will be reduced by 250 million. According to the labor participation rate, China's future labor force will be reduced by about 200 million.
At present, the Chinese economy has declined for several consecutive years, falling below 8%, and the economic growth rate is falling, which coincides with the downward trend of the working-age population, and needs to be quite alert. Japan’s “stagnation eraâ€, which began in the 1990s, is accompanied by a shrinking population. In the future, with the arrival of the country's deepest ageing era, China's labor costs will soar.
The shrinking of the youth population will also reinvigorate the national vitality. The strategic goal we hope to rely on for innovation to achieve transformation will be greatly compromised by the lack of young people and the loss of vitality. Although China has a working-age population of 900 million, if it is subdivided, it will find that in the age group of 16 to 34, the most creative and physically strong, the population is only about 400 million. There are about 500 million middle-aged and elderly people between the ages of 35 and 60. After ten years, the youth working-age population will drop by about 100 million, while the middle-aged and older labor force population will increase by 50 million to 100 million. That is to say, although the total working-age population in China is still considerable, the true elite working-age population is relatively small, and will be less than a quarter of the total population in ten years. If we count the labor force, the more than 300 million people will have to subtract tens of millions of non-participating students who are not involved in labor. The most elite labor force in China will be far less than 300 million.
The way out for alleviating the Chinese population crisis lies in two ends, one is adolescents, and through open births, they can cope with the severe challenges of the future. This is the best policy. One is to delay retirement, which is the best policy. At present, many "retired" personnel, even if they still retain labor, their labor efficiency is too far from the youth labor force. The square dance aunt uncle dances, and it is still not as good as the young adult. And delaying retirement will make the bureaucrats take the opportunity to realize the tenure of positions and plunder excessive social wealth and resources.
Open birth is not an easy task. Even if the vested interests are willing to open up, the public's willingness to bear is also suppressed by the heavy burden of life. At the same time, the decline in fertility is also a common law after the improvement of living standards. In the future, a series of policies to reward fertility will be introduced to promote the recovery of fertility.
The French riots have sounded the alarm for immigrant countries. But unfortunately, due to long-term family planning, the shortage of young people, and China that has not completed industrial upgrading, it will have to rely on young labor outside the country in the future. Because the production of the population is different from the commodity, it is not a labor force when it is born, but it has to wait for about 20 years. During this period, China may be forced to open immigrants. At present, Guangdong and other places, immigrants from Southeast Asia such as Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as immigrants from Africa, have become a climate. In Zhejiang, there are also many “green populations†from Central Asia. In Shanghai’s nanny market, there are more and more Filipino domestic helpers. Even on the streets of Beijing, Asian and African youths are everywhere. The author believes that in view of cultural and ethnic factors, China should focus on opening Southeast Asian immigrants in the future. These countries are close to Chinese culture and have been members of the East Asian tributary system. They are easily culturally assimilated and can reduce potential cultural conflicts.
Luo Tianyi (Researcher of Commercial Technology Quality Center of SASAC, Deputy Secretary General of Zhishi Economic Research Institute, Executive Director of China City Strategy Center)
China's labor force is overestimated, the 100 million crisis is more serious than imagined
Abstract On January 20th, the relevant statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the total number of working-age population aged 16-59 in the country in 2014 was 91.583 million, accounting for 67.0% of the total population, a decrease of 3.71 million compared with last year. This is China. Working age population even...
On January 20, the relevant statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the total number of working-age population aged 16-59 in the country in 2014 was 91.583 million, accounting for 67.0% of the total population, a decrease of 3.71 million compared with last year. The absolute number of people in the third consecutive year has declined. Moreover, it may be difficult to change this trend in the next few decades. The decline in the proportion of the working-age population to the total population means that the dependency ratio in China will decline in the future, the pressure on pensions will be heavy, and the youth labor force will be insufficient.