The northern region has entered the winter season, and the north and south cargoes have caused the supply pressure in the southern market to gradually emerge. The demand in the southern market is gradually weakening. The long products market is affected by seasonal factors, and the pressure on the adjustment of the price of sheet metal products is gradually increasing. It is expected that the short-term domestic steel market will fluctuate slightly.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, this week (2012.12.3-12.7), the domestic steel market price will fluctuate slightly, the long products market will continue to decline, and the plate market price will fluctuate. The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 144.6. The average price of steel is around 3,760 yuan, with an average volatility of about 20-30 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 157.7 points, a slight decrease of 1.6 points; Lange Steel's sheet metal index is expected to fluctuate around 129.1 points, a slight adjustment of about 0.5 points.

From the market research of Lange Steel Information Research Center, it is expected that the domestic long product market prices will continue to fall this week (2012.12.3-12.7), while the plate market prices will rise and fall; raw material market prices will decline steadily or slightly. The market price of iron ore will drop by 5-10 yuan, the coke market price will remain stable, the scrap market price will drop by 50 yuan, and the billet market price will drop by 20 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market fluctuates slightly this week. Week 48 of 2012 (11.26-11.30) The Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 145.8 points, a week-on-month decrease of 1.76%, and a decrease of 14.97% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 159.3 points, down 2.45% on a week-on-week basis and down 18.70% from the same period of last year; the LGMI sheet price index was 129.6 points, down by 0.72% on a week-on-week basis and down 8.79% from the same period of last year.

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 standard varieties monitored by Lange Steel Information Research Center in some regions, the market price of major steel products fluctuates and fluctuates during the 48th week of 2012 (11.26-11.30). There has been a decrease, the flat variety has increased, and the falling variety has increased slightly. Among them, 4 species rose, 5 species decreased compared with last week; 13 species remained flat, 4 species increased compared with last week; 27 species fell, increasing by 1 species from last week. The domestic steel and iron raw materials market prices were mixed, iron ore market prices fell 5-10 yuan, coke market prices rose steadily and slightly up 30 yuan, scrap market prices fell 50 yuan, billet market prices fell 40-90 yuan.

2. This week, the national steel stocks slowed down slightly. At present, the nation's steel stocks declined for 7 consecutive weeks. The rise in building materials inventory accelerated slightly, and the decline in sheet stocks slowed slightly. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on November 30, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country stood at 11.7975 million tons, down 35,800 tons from the previous week. From the perspective of sub-species: China's wire rod social inventory is 1,101,700 tons, up 1.58% from last week; rebar, social inventories are 4,470,600 tons, up 0.88% from last week; Panluo's social inventory is 256,500 tons. This was an increase of 2.22% over the previous week; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3,168,900 tons, down 2.10% from last week; the social volume of cold-rolled coils was 1.547 million tons, down 1.46% from last week; The amount was 1,343,300 tons, 0.38% lower than last week.

3. This week, the steel ** market oscillated and fell in the 48th week of 2012 (11.26-11.30). The rebar market continued to fall. The weekly closing price of this week fell by 76 points from last week, and the overall downward trend was more obvious. This week, the main contract was 1.353 million lots, an increase of 158,000 lots, and Masukura, which lasted for two consecutive weeks, once again increased its position to a high value in history. This is a prerequisite for the emergence of a mid-level market.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

China's total social logistics increased by 9.6% year-on-year in the first 10 months

According to the statistics released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on the 24th, the total social logistics volume for the period from January to October this year was RMB 146.4 trillion, which was a year-on-year increase of 9.6% at comparable prices. According to experts, the stabilization foundation has been further consolidated. Data show that from January to October, China's logistics industry realized an added value of 2.9 trillion yuan, which was calculated at a comparable price and grew by 9.4% year-on-year. Although the growth rate was down from the same period of last year, it was significantly higher than the average growth rate of the second and third industries. Among them, the value-added of transportation industry was 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year; the value-added of the trade sector was 0.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year; the value-added of warehousing industry was 0.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year; 23.2% increase. From January to October, the total fixed asset investment in the logistics industry was 3.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, an increase of 11.9 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, investment in the transportation industry picked up remarkably. From January to October, the amount of investment completed was 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and the growth rate was 11% higher than the same period of last year. The investment in the trade, warehousing and postal industries maintained rapid growth, with an increase of 31.7% and 30.5% respectively year-on-year.

The National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of more than 75 billion yuan in urban rail projects. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on the 26th that it has recently approved the feasibility study report for the Fuzhou Rail Transit Line 2 and the Fuping Railway Project, and approved the recent construction plan for urban rail transit in Urumqi. (2012-2019), the above-mentioned project and planned investment totaled more than 75 billion yuan.

According to an announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission, the construction plan for urban rail transit in Urumqi will be completed by 2019. The first phase of Line 1 and Line 2 will be completed. It will be approximately 47.9 kilometers long, forming the basic skeleton of the rail transit from north to south. The planned total investment is 31.24 billion yuan. .

Fuzhou Rail Transit Line 2 starts at Shadi Station and ends at Gushan Station. The total length of the line is about 26.3 kilometers. The project construction period is four years and the total project investment is 18.227 billion yuan. The NDRC also approved the feasibility study report for the Fuzhou-Pingtan Railway in October. The railway has a long-term transport capacity of 50 million passengers and 15 million tons of freight. The total investment of the project is 25.73 billion yuan, of which 24.33 billion yuan is for engineering investment and 1.4 billion yuan for locomotive and vehicle purchase.

In the first 10 months, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.5% year-on-year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 402.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. From a single month's data, the profit for the month of October was RMB 510.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%; the year-on-year growth rate also rose sharply from 7.8% in September.

Industry News:

Australia launched anti-subsidy investigations against galvanized sheets in China The Australian Customs and Border Protection Agency issued an announcement on the 26th to officially launch anti-subsidy investigations against galvanized sheets and galvanized sheets from China. This is the 7th “double reverse” investigation that Australia initiated to China. The investigation period was from July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2012. According to the announcement, the government and the exporter of the country concerned need to submit the information of the questionnaire to Australian Customs before January 7, 2013. The announcement did not specify the specific subsidy survey items. According to Australian law, countervailing investigations should be closed within 155 days. Australia Customs has launched anti-dumping investigations on these products in September this year.

China Steel Association: In mid-November, the average daily output of crude steel was 1,951,800 tons. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-November, the crude steel output of the staff of the China Iron and Steel Association reached 16.33 million tons, and the average daily output reached 1.633 million tons, which is higher than 11 In the first half of the month, it was down 0.3% year-on-year; the country’s mid-November output was estimated at 19.518 million tons, with an average daily volume of 195.18 million tons, down by 0.49 million tons from the beginning of November and down by 0.25% from the previous month.

In October, the total profit of key steel enterprises in Hebei Province fell to a loss. According to statistics from the Hebei Metallurgical Industry Association, in October, the 65 key steel companies in the province achieved a total profit loss of 721 million yuan in September, which significantly increased their profits. 13.58 billion yuan, steel market has picked up. According to statistics, from January to October, the province’s key steel companies realized a total profit of 2.344 billion yuan, a decrease of 86.38% from 17.817 billion yuan in the same period of last year, and a decrease of 7.38 compared with the cumulative profit reduction of 93.76% from January to September. percentage point. The accumulated profits of eight companies achieved year-on-year growth, and the number of enterprises increased by one from the previous month, accounting for 12.31% of the enterprises entering the country.

According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, 80 large and medium-sized steel enterprises turned losses in October, and 80 domestic and foreign large- and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises that were included in the statistics of the Steel Association in October reported sales of 297.449 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.55% and a profit of 307 million yuan. The quarter-on-quarter loss was 2.683 billion yuan, and profits and taxes were 7.86 billion yuan, up 87.22% month-on-month. In October, the profit rate rose to 0.1% in September from -0.85% in September. This was the first "turnaround" after the entire industry fell into losses in June.

From January to October, sales revenue was 2,940.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%. From January to October, the profits of the steel industry were -5.223 billion yuan, and profits and taxes were 56.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.232 billion yuan. From January to October, the industry's profit margin was -0.18%, the loss was 38.75%, and the accumulated loss was 31.

In November, the steel industry's PMI 45.2% returned to the contraction range. The Lange Steel Information Research Center released 45.2% of the steel industry's PMI in November 2012, which continued to fall by 5.1% from last month and returned to the contraction range. Judging from the prior relationship between Tongyue PMI and steel prices, steel prices will continue to decline in December. From the sub-indexes, the 10 sub-indicators surveyed by the Steel and Steel PMI in November all returned to the contraction range below 50%. Among them, the total order quantity, purchase willingness, and trend judgment index continued to fall in the contraction range, indicating that downstream market demand continued to weaken, and business confidence fell; ** Environment, inventory level index fell, indicating that steel trade companies will once again face funding constraints. Corporate inventory has decreased. It is expected that the steel price will continue to decline in December, but because the procurement cost index is near the critical line, it still plays a certain role in supporting the steel price, and the steel price will not drop sharply in the later period.

The previous session of the thread ** closed down on the 30th, the main contract fell 0.09%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at 3,476 yuan/ton in the morning on the 30th, and then the price showed an upward trend throughout the day. The lowest was 3,464 yuan per ton for the whole day, and the highest was 3,495 yuan per ton, and it was closed at 3,495 yuan per ton. On the trading day (29th), the settlement price fell by 3 yuan/ton, closing 2,288,480 positions, 1,352,618 lots, or 95,522 contracts.

Downstream demand:

In 2013, China's steel demand will reach 666 million tons. According to the 2013 China's Steel Demand Forecast Achievements released by the Institute of Metallurgical Industry Planning, China's steel demand will reach 666 million tons in 2013, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year; crude steel production will reach 7.46. Billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. According to the forecasted results, the steel demand of the construction industry in 2013 was 365 million tons, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year; the steel industry machinery demand was 131 million tons, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year; the automobile industry steel demand was 44.2 million tons, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year; the energy industry It was 30.5 million tons, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year; the shipbuilding industry was 13.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%; the home appliance industry and the container industry maintained the 2012 level; the railway industry demand for steel was 4.7 million tons, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year.