How far is China's non-ferrous metal pricing?

"If there are two people in the mountains, one to a tiger and half to the other, the tiger does not produce any value; now people who collect tiger skins, people who sell tiger bones and wine, and animal protection associations have come. Tigers The value was reassessed.” Guo Feng, who sat opposite the reporter, used the image as an example to compare the links between non-ferrous metal producers, buyers, and traders.

Two weeks ago, he went to the newly established Kunming Pan Asia Nonferrous Metals Exchange and became the first president of the domestic non-ferrous metal spot electronic exchange. According to the reporter's understanding, different from the ** exchange's emphasis on investment, Pan Asia's special model based on spot pricing more protects the interests of producers.

The deputy secretary-general of the Kunming municipal government, Li Yisheng, also expressed great hopes for Pan-Asia: It is hoped that Yunnan, which has a reputation as a “non-ferrous metals kingdom,” can use this to realize the pricing of non-ferrous metals and thus promote the establishment of China’s international pricing power. However, it seems that it remains to be seen whether the wonderful blueprint will come true.

The novelty trading model “We will not calculate the listed benchmark price.” On April 21st, silver and rare metal indium will be the first to enter the exchange as precursors, but for those familiar with financial transactions, Guo Feng’s Sentence response is quite somewhat surprised, "Pan-Asia membership should include manufacturers, wholesalers, dealers, will be quoted as a manufacturer quoted price." It is understood that the current market price of indium is 4,750 yuan / kg, the transaction price There will be no disconnect from the market price and the margin ratio will be 20%.

This pricing model seems to imply that pan-Asian supporters cannot include commodities speculators and speculators. Guo Feng told reporters that in order to guard against trading risks, the exchange limit set by the TransAsian Exchange is: 8% on the first day, 6% on the second day, and 3% on the third day. “When the market fluctuates by more than 17%, , it will start a mode of suspending trading for a day or forcibly closing a position."

In addition, unlike many domestic medium and long-term electronic trading markets, Guo Feng stated that on the Pan-Asian platform, all open positions and order quantities are open, and there is a limit to the maximum order quantity based on the actual capacity of non-ferrous metal products.

All these regulations show that in the Pan-Asian model, the traditional blended trading model is guaranteed by the banker's liquidity, which brings about the issue of artificially manipulating prices. It was first circumvented. Li Xiaosheng said that the Kunming municipal government has issued a special "Interim Measures for the Administration of the Kunming Pan-Asian Non-ferrous Metals Exchange" and will establish a "committee" headed by the city's leadership in charge of the exchanges and transactions from the organization and supervision mode. Business, trading activities to guide.

The service producer "The Pan-Asian trading model is neither a traditional spot sale nor an exchange, but an e-commerce platform where buyers and sellers deal on the internet and enter the delivery process the next day." Guo Feng told reporters if one party requests an extension. , it must pay the other party deferred compensation.

“Compensation money is set at five-ten thousandths of the transaction amount, and it is shared by all the buyers of the buyer or the seller.” The reporter noted that if this is set, it is assumed that the manufacturer as a seller requests delivery every day and the buyer wants to If you want to arbitrage, you must pay a certain position cost; but on the other hand, the actual probability of default by the manufacturer is much lower.

Guo Feng admits that according to their conversions, earning liquidated damages can earn up to 18% of the year. “The function of Pan Asia is to serve non-ferrous metal entity manufacturers, such as indium, with national production accounting for 80% of the world total, and Yunnan production accounting for 1/3. Major demand markets, such as Japan and South Korea, use China’s domestic demand to be small. With many manufacturers negotiating prices, manufacturers are worried about unsalable sales and are competing to reduce prices, resulting in the ultimate export of resource products.”

In Guo Feng’s view, the demand relationship may not necessarily be a use relationship. “If private capital can be invested in an exchange, manufacturers do not need to hurry to sell to foreigners, which means that they actually achieve marketization, which is conducive to more reasonable The reporter learned that when the seller does not want to receive deferred compensation, the bank that has formed a cooperative relationship with the exchange will pay in advance. "Manufacturers can get the money at any time and stop excessive speculation."

Imagining the right to speak This way, the pricing power of non-ferrous metals is also expected to return to China. "Pan Asia's goal is international non-ferrous metals exchanges, but it is not international." Guo Feng said that international needs to participate in international transactions, the international level refers to the international influence, "We did not start Will allow foreign capital to enter."

"Currently, copper, aluminum, lead and zinc are all priced on the London Stock Exchange. They have developed for more than 100 years and focused on a large amount of money to set prices for goods. The trading rules are also set by them. Domestic trading rules are With them, it is easy for international capital to arbitrage.” Guo Feng said that the launch of his own model of spot exchanges is precisely in line with China's real economy conditions. “So we started with the varieties that they didn’t have and the next step would be to make rare metals.” Oh, find a breakthrough."

In Guo Feng's view, it must have its own trading model to generate its own pricing power. Li Yusheng also admits that Yunnan has discovered 54 kinds of possession of non-ferrous metals in the country's top ten, but the pricing power is not in China. The reporter learned from Shanghai Nonferrous Network that indium is a basic material for the manufacture of nuclear bombs. The proven reserves of metallic indium are only 1/6 of the proven gold reserves, but the price is close to 5,000 tons of gold. Compared with 10,000 yuan, the export price of one ton of metallic indium is only over 300 million yuan***.

The ** market, the right to speak of pricing has become hot. At the end of March, lead** landed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. At this point, commodities such as copper, lead, zinc, and lead** have all been completed; the non-ferrous metals index has also come out.

The effect remains to be tested. Although the blueprint is good, the future of Pan-Asian Asia is not a smooth one. “Although Yunnan is a non-ferrous metal kingdom, it is generally an economically underdeveloped region in the whole country. If the funds and information are not as big as those of other big cities, it would be difficult for the TransAsia Exchange to immediately challenge the courts in Shenzhen and Shanghai. "Some observers questioned.

Some analysts also believe that in the past, "fixed-point" transactions between manufacturers and foreign companies could allow factories to produce products in accordance with specific targets. "In the past, foreign companies provided product requirements, and manufacturers compared production. Now, the Pan-Asian Exchange should also issue details, such as How should the quality requirements of trading symbols set a uniform standard?"

In addition, the reporter noted that the first phase of the Pan-Asian Nonferrous Metals Exchange’s investment was 100 million yuan. This figure is enough for operating turnover, and it also aroused some doubts in the industry. It is understood that the initial investment of Hong Kong Commodity Exchange was approximately 390 million Hong Kong dollars.

“From the perspective of imagination, the birth of the Pan-Asian Exchange is a good thing. In the past, because the trading place was not in the place of production, the production company must ship the cargo to Shanghai, and the company lost freight, and the local government lost tax revenue.” The reporter said that a smooth transaction price may be less attractive to investors. "We can't really do a large scale, but we have to wait for some time to observe."

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