The expected large-scale subsidy reduction has been cancelled unexpectedly, and the global PV industry can be described as “a false alarm”.

The world's largest PV application market - Germany originally planned to reduce the subsidy of PV feed-in tariffs in March 2012, which is worthy of a high-hanging sword of Damocles for domestic PV companies.

Surprisingly, the clause was removed in a draft renewable energy bill passed by the German Federal Cabinet on June 6. In the industry's view, this is undoubtedly an unexpected surprise.

Previously, the German Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety had stated that it would add an additional 6% reduction in subsidies and plans to enter into force in March 2012. However, our reporter learned from the industry that on the morning of June 6, local time, the German Federal Government Cabinet discussed and approved the amendment of the Renewable Energy Bill. This additional subsidy reduction has been removed from the amendment.

Obviously, the German government currently wants to retain the original on-grid tariff modification mechanism. Therefore, the on-grid tariff subsidy for PV power plants will be as planned, depending on the amount of new installations per year, up to 24%.

According to the agreement of the German cabinet, from January 1, 2012, FiT (German Renewable Energy Power Generation Subsidy Mechanism) is expected to be reduced by only 9%. However, once the PV system installation exceeds the annual limit of 3.5GW, each additional 1GW will result in a further 3% reduction in subsidies. This agreement will be implemented at the end of September each year.

The German Federal Government cabinet meeting also decided to abandon nuclear power, and all nuclear power plants will be shut down by 2022.

“It is certainly good for the photovoltaic industry to cancel the additional subsidy reduction. This means that European countries are increasingly inclined to adopt total control rather than direct reduction of subsidies to support the development of the photovoltaic industry.” Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society Tell this reporter that this is mainly to regulate the speed of PV development and avoid over-expanding the government to overwhelm the government.

In his view, the overall trend of the development of the photovoltaic industry will not change, including the European and the United States, the goal of photovoltaic installation will not be reduced, but the difference between fast and slow, "component price decline, subsidies are decreasing year by year is normal, not necessary This is too pessimistic."

However, the current inventory risks of the PV downstream industry still exist.

A person familiar with the matter told this reporter that in the first half of the year, due to the uncertain market policy in Italy, the inventory of PV products was still not fully digested. Some small component factories have encountered “order shortage”, and the price drop has made the inventory products impaired. Great increase.

Data show that last year's global installed capacity was 15.7GW, an increase of 120% year-on-year, of which Germany's installed capacity was 6,727MW, accounting for 50% of the world, while the Italian market ranked second in the world with 2850MW installed capacity.

Considering the uncertainties in the European market, more PV companies are now looking to some of the “emerging markets” for PV installations – the US and Canada.

For example, LDK has acquired a 70% stake in US solar power; Artes Group has invested in a 200 MW PV module production base in Ontario, Canada; Yingli is also planning to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to build a production base in the United States. .  

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