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According to media reports here, in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†(2011-2015) planning proposal reviewed and approved by the Fifth Plenary Session, the expansion of domestic demand was not only for the first time in the five-year plan (plan), but also placed in the top ten. The first of the development tasks, this fully reflects China's extreme desire to get rid of the unbalanced growth path that has been formed by paying too much attention to GDP growth, and is trying to inject sustained endogenous power into sustainable economic development.
As we all know, consumption, investment, and exports are the three engines of economic growth in a country. As far as China is concerned, the latter two have played a prominent role in the process of sustained and rapid economic growth for more than ten years. The former is not ideal, and its contribution rate to GDP has also continued to decline.
The international financial crisis that erupted in 2008 made China aware of the fragility and complexity of overseas markets. The negative consequences of the crisis are not the temporary shrinking of external demand. The consumption and production patterns of developed economies have been added to China’s export-oriented strategy. Many external pressures will have a long-term impact, which means that China’s export mania will continue for many years. At the same time, as China's economic aggregate continues to grow, the role of overseas markets in promoting economic growth will become smaller and smaller.
The external power is in a hurry, and only seek compensation from within. In the process of resisting the impact of external demand, the huge economic stimulus plan led by the Chinese government has indeed played a major role in maintaining growth. However, the unsustainable economic growth and the diminishing marginal benefit of large-scale and high-intensity investment are doomed to It’s far from a long-term solution.
Vigorously promoting consumption and further establishing a long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand has become an inevitable choice for China to achieve sustainable development. Some experts have suggested that it should be clear in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†that by the end of 2015, China’s consumption rate and household consumption rate will reach 65% and 55% respectively. On the theoretical level, the continuous advancement of industrialization and urbanization is bound to build a long-term and huge domestic demand market for China with a population of 1.3 billion. From a practical perspective, China’s long-standing urban-rural gap, regional disparity, and income gap are all problems. It is an important constraint to break through the consumer dilemma.
Despite the difficult road ahead, China’s transformation towards a scientific, balanced, and healthy development model cannot be hesitated. Otherwise, all kinds of deep-seated contradictions will only become more and more serious and will cause greater harm in the future. Just as the official media wrote in the article of the Fifth Plenary Session commentator: "Development is different from growth. We must not only look at the speed, size, and gains. If the development is not scientific, the road will become narrower and narrower."
Expanding the internal needs to get rid of the unbalanced growth path and become China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"
The Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee ended recently. The Plenary of the Plenary proposed "to persist in expanding the domestic demand strategy, establish a long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand, and accelerate the formation of a new situation in which consumption, investment, and export coordination drive economic growth." This statement will profoundly affect China's future development direction.