China's distributed PV investment value and prospects: household market space of 180GW

Abstract 2017 is the first year of household PV explosion. According to the data released by the National Energy Administration, the installed capacity of distributed PV in China in the first three quarters reached 15.3GW, a year-on-year increase of 4 times. At the same time, the number of household PV roofs in Zhejiang has reached 107,991,...

2017 is the first year of household PV explosion. According to the data released by the National Energy Administration, the installed capacity of distributed PV in China in the first three quarters reached 15.3GW, a four-fold increase over the same period last year. At the same time, the number of household PV roofs in Zhejiang has reached 107,991, breaking through 100,000 households. A new era of distributed photovoltaics is kicking off. Under this circumstance, what is the investment value of China's distributed photovoltaics?

On November 14th, the 8th “OFweek 2017 China Solar Photovoltaic Summit Forum” hosted by OFweek China Hi-Tech Industry Portal and hosted by OFweek Solar Photovoltaic Network was held in Shenzhen. Sun Dongdong, senior analyst at the OFweek Industry Research Center, gave a wonderful speech on the topic "China's Distributed PV Investment Value and Forecast".

Sun Dongdong said that China's distributed PV is developing rapidly, and household PV is the trend of the times, and the prospects are attractive. According to the statistics of the State Grid, at the end of 2016, the number of distributed PV grid-connected households in the State Grid operating area has exceeded 200,000, while in 2015 there were only 20,000 households, which increased nearly 8 times in one year, and in the first half of 2017. It is more than 410,000 households, more than twice the amount of the whole year of 2016. It is worth noting that at the end of 2016, the installed capacity of distributed PV households in China was 45KW. At the end of June 2017, the average installed capacity dropped to 39KW, which is enough to show that distributed PV is changing in the direction of miniaturization and household use.

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Rapid growth of household distributed photovoltaic market in China in 2014-2018

By combing the various policies of China's distributed photovoltaics in recent years, we can find the support of distributed photovoltaics at the national level and the determination to develop distributed photovoltaics. A series of favorable policies for distributed photovoltaic development have laid the foundation for the development of household distributed photovoltaics in China.

Regarding the reasons for the distributed photovoltaic outbreak, Sun Dongdong analyzed that policy support is the basis for the distributed development of household use. Whether it is the "13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development" or the "13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development", the policy benefits are tilting toward distribution.

In addition, the rapid decline in cost has led to a significant increase in the yield. In recent years, with the advancement of technology, the cost of major equipment such as components and inverters has decreased, and the supporting costs of brackets, cables, and installations have been brought about by improved component conversion efficiency. The decline of photovoltaic power generation system continues to decline, and the cost of photovoltaic system has dropped from 60 yuan/W in 2007 to 6 yuan/W. The distributed electricity subsidy of the “spontaneous use, surplus electricity online” model has maintained a level of 0.42 yuan/kwh since 2013, which makes the investment income of household distributed power stations gradually attractive. The promotion of enterprises has also helped the distribution of households to become more and more popular.

Sun Dongdong believes that the distributed photovoltaic industry is also faced with multi-party complex interests and other issues, but also there are potential risks such as uncertain electricity bill settlement, uncertain professional services, uncertain roof rent, uncertain roof property rights, and rural power grid construction. The backwardness will limit the promotion of household photovoltaic systems.

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2016-2020 China Household PV Installation Forecast

Finally, Sun Dongdong believes that the household photovoltaic market has huge space. For the city, the market space for household photovoltaics reaches 32GW; for the town, the market space for household photovoltaics reaches 49GW; for rural areas, the household photovoltaic market The space reaches 97GW. The household PV market in cities and towns has a total space of 180 GW.

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