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The global photovoltaic industry has passed the mark
Germany will completely abandon the news of nuclear power generation by 2022, leaving the nervous Chinese PV market a little relieved, but the anxiety is still spreading. With the release of the first quarter of 2011, Wuxi Suntech announced the results of the first quarter of 2011, the world's major PV companies reported their debut, but people found that the new energy photovoltaic companies accustomed to the triumph of the glory, but in this quarter ushered in "sound" One piece, the global photovoltaic industry has undoubtedly entered an adjustment period. Let's take a look at the transcripts that these PV giants handed over. In the first quarter of this year, only five PV companies in the world had net revenues of more than 500 million US dollars, but all of them have seen a decline in the ring, Wuxi Suntech. Net revenue decreased by 7.2%, First Solar's net revenue decreased by 6.9%, Jingao Solar's net revenue decreased by 5.5%, Yingli Green Energy's net revenue decreased by 14.4%, Trina Solar Net revenue decreased by 14.2%. At the same time, the latest global PV industry analysis report by international research institute IMS Research shows that global PV module shipments in the first quarter fell by nearly 10%, which is the first decline since the beginning of 2009. Global PV inverter shipments also fell to 4GW (Jiva, 1 GW = 1 million kW) in the first quarter, down 39% from the previous quarter. Of course, this is related to the PV market usually ushered in the off-season in the first quarter, and the photovoltaic market is under the influence of the most important PV market policy change in Europe after 2010, which is generally in short supply. . Last year, the price of PV modules showed a steady and rising trend, which was maintained at 1.5~2 Euro/W, and this year, the price began to turn around and turn sharply. According to a survey released by the industry website Energy Trend on June 1, the average transaction price of photovoltaic cells has fallen below 0.9 US dollars per watt, the lowest even to 0.8 US dollars per watt, and the pressure of downstream manufacturers to reduce prices has not stopped. This can not help but worry, in 2011, the photovoltaic industry will once again stage the tragic scene of 2008? At that time, the financial crisis broke out. The Chinese PV industry, which had been in high spirits, suddenly fell into a trough. Nearly 30% of domestic enterprises were on the verge of bankruptcy, 70% of enterprises closed down, stopped production or limited production. Many people who are expected to invest in domestic PV companies began to wait and see... ... For far more than to talk about the adjustment and decline of this round of PV market, many people have pointed the finger at the "damn" European PV subsidy, pointing to the decline in the price of components. China has been the world's largest producer of photovoltaic cells since 2007, while Europe is the most important market for photovoltaic products in China. Currently, more than 90% of the PV products produced in China are sold overseas, most of which are sold to Europe. But last year, Europe's major photovoltaic power generation countries such as Germany, Spain and Italy have successively reduced subsidies and preferential policies for photovoltaic power generation. One of the fastest-growing national markets of the year was the “penalty scheme†for a portfolio of domestic foam-type photovoltaic power plants, which included a 26% “solar taxâ€. In March of this year, last year's largest PV demand increase country Italy suddenly abandoned the inherent PV price subsidy mechanism, no longer clear the electricity price subsidy, which greatly increased the uncertainty of photovoltaic power plant construction, causing the market to panic about the development of the market . As one of the largest PV distributors in Europe, Liu Jiayong, CEO of Fire Energy, told The First Financial Daily that from 2009 to 2010, the market situation has been constantly prompted by installers and sub-distributors. It is too late for the manufacturers to process the production, but by the end of last year, the company began to accumulate inventory, and the photovoltaic market has entered the era of the buyer's market. What is worrying is that most of the PV manufacturers have expanded their production capacity on a large scale last year due to the hot market. Although most people in the industry are optimistic about the prospects of the PV market, they have formed a "supply far exceeds demand" in a certain period of time. "The actual situation." According to a battery manufacturer's annual survey released by Photon International, an international photovoltaic consulting company, in March this year, solar cell capacity will increase by 80% to 67GW. In a report released by IMS Research in May, it is estimated that the global installed capacity of photovoltaics will be 21 GW in 2011, and IMS has also lowered its PV market forecast for 2012 due to the weakening of PV stimulus policies in some markets. The sound from the front line is even more pessimistic. Wang Yi, chief strategy officer of Yingli Green Energy, told this reporter that the global PV market may enter a relatively slow development period in the next 18 months. He expects global PV module shipments in 2011 to be pessimistic, probably only 17~18GW, and optimistic may be around 20GW, which will be slightly lower than last year's global shipment of 21~22GW. If the above predictions are established, it will mean that there will be a huge gap between the actual demand and capacity of the PV industry. For PV manufacturers, 2011 will undoubtedly be the most difficult year. Hope in turmoil According to Sobi Solar's website, in early March, as the Italian PV subsidy policy changed, some of China's PV module manufacturers that arrived in Europe were collectively returned by European customers and were asked to cut prices by more than 30%. The matter is still unresolved, and domestic reports have been reported that the current PV trough has already caused a fatal blow to second- and third-tier PV companies. "The market was so good last year, small companies have to wait for big companies to sell or not to sell them." Wang Yiyue believes that although the overall supply of photovoltaics this year is oversupply, if the share of small companies is from the total market The supply is removed, the manufacturers of big brands are still less than demand for the market, and the days of the second and third tier photovoltaic companies will become very difficult. IMS also predicted that shipments and prices will continue to decline in the second quarter of this year, with the price of crystalline silicon components from China's second-tier suppliers dropping the fastest. Of course, under the current market situation, the Chinese PV industry is not completely out of reach. China Investment Consulting's "2010-2015 China Solar PV Equipment Market Investment Analysis and Forecast Report" pointed out that the future market of photovoltaics is in Asia, and China will become a major growth driver for global photovoltaic manufacturing equipment. According to media reports, the “Twelfth Five-Year†Renewable Energy Development Plan, which has been reported to the State Council, has raised the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China to 10GW in 2015, which is doubled compared with the target in the first draft of the plan. A large-scale start is coming soon. In terms of overseas markets, the positive effects brought about by the closure of nuclear power in Germany should not be underestimated. Huabao Securities report pointed out that if the total amount of nuclear power generation in Germany is completely replaced by photovoltaic power generation, a total of 175 GW of PV installed capacity (assuming photovoltaic power generation of 800 hours per year) will be averaged 17.5 GW per year for ten years; even if only 50% is replaced by photovoltaics, It can be exchanged for an average annual market capacity of 8.75GW in the next 10 years. In contrast, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in Germany in 2010 was about 7.4 GW, only one in the German market. The gradual closure of its nuclear power plants has left a broad market space for the photovoltaic industry.