Analysis of import and export of machine tool industry in 2008
The international financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has had a major impact on the world economy and trade. As the financial crisis has evolved into an economic crisis and has expanded globally, the impact on China's imports and exports has gradually emerged and deepened. In 2008, China's import and export of machine tool industry showed a state of first rise and then decline. July is the turning point of import and export of the whole industry. The first half of the year is a rising period. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of import and export volume has both declined. Throughout the year, the import and export of the machine tool industry has basically maintained the growth rate of the previous year, but the import and export structure has undergone significant changes, showing new features. Import and export overview 1. The growth rate of foreign trade in the machine tool industry is basically the same as that in the previous year, and the deficit is further narrowed. According to customs data, the import and export of machine tool industry continued to grow in 2008, with total import and export value of US$19.42 billion, up 14.4% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 7.13 billion US dollars, up 37.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; imports were 12.29 billion US dollars, up 4.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. The growth rate of imports and exports has remained at the same level as in the previous year. The annual import and export deficit of the industry was 5.16 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.41 billion US dollars from 2007, which was 2.16 billion US dollars lower than the highest in 2006. The import and export situation of the machine tool industry in 2008 is shown in Table 1. Exports of the whole industry maintained rapid growth In the first half of 2008, the export of machine tool industry continued its development momentum for many years, and the export growth was rapid. From January to June, the export volume of the whole industry increased by 49.1% year-on-year, 18.5 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Since July, affected by the international market environment and the appreciation of the renminbi, the growth of the export volume of the whole industry has shown a month-on-month decline. As the growth rate in the first half of the year was relatively fast, the foundation was laid, and the annual export growth of the industry was still higher than the same period of the previous year by nearly 1 percentage point. The main products that drive China's rapid export growth are abrasives, machine tools and cutting tools. In 2008, the total export value of these three types of products was 3.36 billion US dollars, accounting for 47.2% of the total export value of the machine tool industry, and the export growth rate reached 54.0%. The import growth rate of the whole industry began to slow down as the world's largest consumer of machine tools and the world's largest importer of machine tools. In 2008, China's machine tool market remained active. The import growth of the whole industry in January-June was more than double that of the same period of last year. In the third quarter, the growth rate slowed down, and the fourth quarter saw a slowdown. This led to an annual increase of only 4.4% in the machine tool industry, the lowest growth rate in the past decade. However, the import growth rate of numerical control devices and measuring instruments has not decreased, and they are all above 35%. 2. The export growth rate of metal processing machine tools slowed down remarkably, and the growth of import growth rebounded. The export value of metal processing machine tools in 2008 was 2.11 billion US dollars, up 27.6% year-on-year. The growth rate was 11.7 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year, which was the lowest growth rate in the past 5 years. . The import value was US$7.59 billion, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 9.7 percentage points. The contribution rate of machine tool export growth decreased. The United States is the largest market for machine tool exports in China. As a result, the export of metal processing machine tools has declined rapidly. Since 2008, the growth rate of exports has been lower than that of the same period of last year. From August to November, the monthly growth in the four months of the month has become a negative growth. Compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of metal processing machine tool exports in 2008 decreased from 31.8% in the previous year to 29.5%, and the contribution rate of export growth decreased from 33.7% in the previous year to 23.6%, a drop of 10%. The increase in the import growth rate of machine tools, which accounts for more than 60% of the total import value of the whole industry, is the main factor driving the growth of machine tool imports. With the launch of major national science and technology projects, the demand for medium and high-end CNC machine tools in China has increased in 2008. Due to the domestic demand for some large, precise, high-speed and high-efficiency medium and high-end CNC machine tools, there is still a gap between product structure and demand structure. The gap, the growth rate of imports inevitably rebounded. Since 2008, the import value of metal processing machine tools has increased by about 9% year-on-year. Although the growth rate in the fourth quarter has declined, the year-on-year growth of imports has reached 7.3%, which is higher than the year-on-year growth of -2.4%. 9.7 percentage points, a large increase. 3. Changes in the import and export pattern of metal processing machine tools The rise of emerging markets has changed the pattern of export markets. Since the outbreak of the economic crisis, the US machine tool market has been declining, but it has not changed China's position as the number one exporter. In 2008, China exported US$160 million to US machine tools, down 16.0% year-on-year. Exports to India reached a growth rate of US$130 million with a growth rate of 79.7%, from the fifth place in the previous year to the second place. Exports accounted for 6.4% of total machine tool exports, only one percentage point lower than the United States. At the same time, China's exports to Brazil, Russia, Vietnam and other countries have grown rapidly, reaching more than 50%, and the proportion has further expanded. Germany's share of imports increased, and China's imports of Taiwan fell year-on-year. The top three imports of machine tools in China are still Japan, Germany and Taiwan, accounting for nearly 70% of total imported machine tools. In 2008, the import of machine tools from Germany grew rapidly, with the amount increasing by 36.1% year-on-year, accounting for 4.3 percentage points, rising to the second place. China's Taiwan imports were US$1.2 billion, down 13.7% year-on-year, the first negative growth in recent years. Compared with the same period of last year, the decline rate reached 21.8 percentage points, and its proportion also decreased. Import and export characteristics 1. The structure of import and export products is further optimized, and the product grade is improved. Despite the increasingly severe external environment, the proportion of CNC metalworking machine tools in China's metal processing machine tool exports has gradually increased, and the proportion of low-value machine tools has gradually decreased. The structure is gradually optimized. In 2008, the export value of CNC machine tools in China accounted for 33.2% of the total export value of metal processing machine tools, accounting for 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous year. At the same time, the total export value of low-value machine tools such as bench drills, sawing machines, polishing machines and grinders decreased by 8.8 percentage points over the previous year. Under the guidance of various national policies, the export of a number of high-tech products has shown rapid growth. For example, the export value of machining centers, CNC boring and milling machines, CNC grinding machines and CNC gantry milling machines increased by more than 70% year-on-year. In recent years, enterprises have attached great importance to the development of innovative high value-added products, improved the quality and grade of export products, and the average price of some important products has increased. For example, the average price of gantry machining center, CNC boring machine, CNC gantry milling machine, CNC gear processing machine and CNC cutting machine increased by 91.9%, 44.5%, 253.7%, 49.9% and 87.9%, respectively, indicating that the machine tool industry is optimizing export products. The structure has taken a solid step. Among the major categories of products in the machine tool industry, the increase in import value in 2008 was higher than the increase in the number of imports, and the average price of various products also increased to varying degrees. In particular, the number of imported metal processing machine tools decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, the import value increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the average price increase of single unit increased by 31.8 percentage points. The average price of gantry machining center, gantry milling machine, CNC milling machine, CNC grinding machine, CNC gear processing machine and CNC forming machine increased by 26.3%, 35.2%, 72.8%, 50.4%, 43.3%, 38.0%, respectively. Product grades including large machine tool products are improving. 2. Export tax rebate rate adjustment to promote enterprise product upgrades Since July 1, 2007, 36 machine tool products including abrasives, tools and insert planers have reduced the export tax rebate rate. The reduction of export tax rebate rate has reduced the profit margin of enterprises. Relevant enterprises in the industry have taken corresponding rectification measures to increase investment in environmental protection, energy conservation and consumption reduction, and strive to reduce production costs. According to the data reflected in 2008, the export of most products still maintains the growth momentum, and the prices of export products increase. There are factors affecting the appreciation of the renminbi, but more of the export products are accelerating. For example, the export volume of diamond grinding wheel decreased by 20.9%, the export value increased by 12.8%, the average price increased by 42.5%; the export volume of cemented carbide file increased by 10.4%, the export value increased by 44.6%, the average price increased by 31.0%; the insertion and broaching were both In the case of a decline in the number of exports, the amount of exports has doubled. Industry companies have made significant progress in improving product added value, improving product quality, and exploring the international market. At the end of 2008, in response to the international financial crisis, the state encouraged exports and increased the export tax rebate rate for some mechanical and electrical products, including some of the above products, which will play a positive role in the export of machine tools and tools. In the current international complicated and volatile foreign trade environment, all countries are taking certain measures to protect their own interests and impose restrictions on other countries. Trade frictions and disputes will inevitably increase. Therefore, industry enterprises should continue to focus on improving the added value of products and optimizing product structure. At the same time, we must seize the opportunity to continue to explore emerging markets and ensure the steady growth of machine tool exports. 3. The impact of the international financial crisis on China's exports began to show The US financial crisis and the slowdown in world economic development, the impact on China's exports is emerging. In 2008, the machine tools industry exported to the United States, Japan and other major developed countries began to slow down. As the most important export market for machine tools in China, the United States has shrunk sharply in 2008. Compared with 2007, the growth rate of exports has dropped by 22.2 percentage points, and its share has fallen by nearly 4 percentage points. The value of exports to Japan increased by 0.06 year-on-year, and the export ranking dropped from the second place in the previous year to the fourth place. The rapid growth of emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and Russia, and Eastern Europe and South America has made up for some of the gaps, making China's machine tool export growth still above 20%. After the crisis, the most affected companies were export-dependent enterprises dominated by processing trade. In recent years, industrial enterprises have made great achievements in researching and developing new products and creating their own brands. cut back. In 2008, nearly 70% of CNC machine tools exported by general trade were exported, and less than a quarter were exported by processing trade. A good export method is also a major factor in maintaining the growth of machine tool exports. Problems and Suggestions 1. Learn to make good use of national policies, and strive to maintain the continuous growth of the machine tool industry to resist the adverse impact of the international economic environment on China and ensure the steady growth of the domestic economy. The country has concentrated on promoting a series of economies since the second half of 2008. Development policy. For example, the state has introduced ten measures to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth. By the end of 2010, the total investment will be about 4 trillion yuan; implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy; and promote the steady growth of foreign trade, increase the export of some products four times. Tax rebate rate, a total of 38 kinds of products benefit from the machine tool industry; full implementation of VAT transformation, encourage enterprise technological transformation; cancel the VAT for imported equipment and foreign investment enterprises to purchase domestic equipment to refund the value-added tax two policies, which is conducive to China's independent innovation and Localization of equipment and revitalization of equipment manufacturing industry; reduction of benchmark interest rates and deposit reserve ratios, reduction of corporate loan costs, etc. These policies will have a positive or direct impact on the development of the machine tool industry. "Protection growth" is the primary task of China's economic work in 2009. Industry enterprises should take the accelerated development mode transformation and structural adjustment as the main direction of growth, pay close attention to national key investment projects, conduct in-depth research on user enterprises, and study user processes and development. And produce more imported alternative products, providing more domestic equipment for users in various industries. 2. Strive to open up the market and realize the continuous growth of the machine tool industry Under the current global economic integration, only by grasping the pulse of the world economy and striving to open up two markets at home and abroad can the machine tool industry continue to grow. Affected by the global financial crisis, in the second half of 2008, industry enterprises faced difficulties such as reduced orders, lower sales, increased inventory, lower profits, and insufficient liquidity. The impact will continue in 2009 and must be highly valued. In response to the crisis and promoting economic growth, the state has introduced a series of policies to stimulate the economy. At the same time, 16 major scientific and technological projects for the revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry have gradually entered the implementation stage. The revitalization plan for textile machinery, automobiles, railways, transportation and other industries is The machine tool industry provides space for development. Enterprises should carefully study the needs of users, develop and manufacture high-precision, high-speed, large-scale high-value-added products in a targeted manner, gradually replace imports, and realize China's equipment and equipment in China. In order to alleviate the export losses caused by the economic downturn in developed countries, industry enterprises should strive to open up diversified new markets, pay more attention to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, South America and other regions, tap potential markets, and vigorously develop free trade with China. Trade and cooperation in the countries of the agreement. According to the statistics of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat, in 2008 China was the second largest source of imports and the third largest export destination in Brazil, and bilateral trade grew rapidly, both above 50%. However, emerging markets are growing fast and the risks that come with them are high. In the long run, the wave of crisis will inevitably affect this part of the market. According to Russia's January 2009 import and export data, its import growth has fallen sharply. Therefore, enterprises must improve their ability to avoid risks and adopt various methods to expand exports. Further carry out international operations, take the opportunity to acquire and acquire foreign well-known enterprises, obtain advanced manufacturing technology, and expand sales channels. 3. Adjusting the structure of export products to achieve sustained export growth In the past decade, China's machine tool industry has maintained rapid growth in exports. In 2003, the export value of metal processing machine tools in China was only 380 million US dollars. In 2008, it increased to 2.11 billion US dollars, an increase of more than 4 times, the average annual growth rate reached 37.4%, the proportion of export CNC machine tools increased year by year, and the structure of export products was gradually optimized. . In 2008, affected by the international financial crisis, the growth rate of ordinary machine tool exports declined somewhat, but the export of CNC machine tools continued to maintain a high growth rate of more than 40%. In China's export of machine tools, the current low-end machine tools are still the main products, the product cost performance has certain advantages, the international has a certain degree of competitiveness, such products should continue to improve product quality, consolidate and expand the international market share. However, it is necessary to pay great attention to the fact that among the export products in China, low-grade abrasives, low-value tools, and low-value machine tools still account for a certain proportion. Although they have low-cost advantages, they will be related to national policies. Influenced by factors such as the environment, the living space of these products will become smaller and smaller, and even lose the market. To this end, we need to continuously optimize the structure of export products, increase the development of high-tech content and high value-added products, develop products with independent intellectual property rights, and strive to close and transform international standards or international advanced technology standards to improve international competitiveness. Change China's manufacturing for China.