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Rebar has ushered in a new market of 100 million tons to become a rising opportunity for the steel market
Since the second half of 2011, China's steel industry has clearly entered a trough, which is the only way for the development of the steel industry to move from quantitative to qualitative; in the process of transformation, there must be pain, but more potential opportunities; How the operators of the steel industry seize this opportunity is the key to determining their later development. Since China began to popularize the third-grade high-strength rebar plan, the steel industry has ushered in a new market of nearly 100 million tons of high-end rebar; thus, it will affect the future trend of steel prices; we briefly analyze. The Ministry of Housing and Construction and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have determined that by the end of the 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan' period, the use of high-strength steel bars in construction projects must reach at least 65% of the total amount of steel bars. At present, the annual consumption of rebar consumption in the country is about 1.3 to 140 million tons; according to the requirements, the amount of rebar used for conversion to grade 3 or above is about 100 million tons; according to market personnel, although some steel mills are currently producing in China. High-strength steel bars above grade 3, but the use rate is generally low because of the relatively high price; at that time, when the mandatory regulations for the downstream industry were fully implemented, a new high-end steel market was inevitably formed, which is a problem for the current depressed steel market. Has a strong competitive edge. Before discussing this potential new market of 100 million tons of high-strength steel, we still need to understand that this capacity definitely needs technology upgrade. Then, when the country plans to upgrade the relevant capacity structure, it will follow the previous new capacity approval or reduce it. Or the same amount of capacity for approval; this is the most serious problem. As of 2012, China's steel production capacity has been seriously over-supplied, especially low-end production capacity; if new high-end production capacity can not be eliminated while corresponding backward production capacity, then the original overloaded market will add 100 million tons of supply; will not Conducive to the healthy development of the steel market, it is also difficult to help the steel industry out of the woods. As far as the downstream industry is concerned, the standards for materials used in the real estate industry are still being piloted in a small scale; they cannot be implemented in the short term; because they face a lot of real problems; for example, the engineering design units are basically based on the original design drawings. It is unlikely that this is a modification of the standard that is still being tested. In addition, the current price of high-strength steel bars above the third grade is about 100~200 yuan higher than ordinary secondary steel; huge price difference is a huge cost increase for downstream industry developers; no development The Chamber of Commerce uses a lot of expensive high-strength steel bars with reference to existing design drawings. Although replacing the existing secondary steel with three or more steel bars, the amount of use will be greatly reduced, and the overall cost will be reduced or not; but the concept of decades has made the developers estimate for a while, and few are willing to try. . Of course, the use of high-strength steel can save resources and achieve environmental protection. In the end, it is definitely a trend in the construction industry. However, the transmission of this concept requires a short process; before this, perhaps this emerging market will continue to experience The days of the cold. For steel mills, this may be a situation in which the market is forced to adjust the capacity structure of steel mills; we should find out what the market needs, what can the enterprise produce, and ultimately the market decides production; the downstream industry's material standards are hard to improve Limiting the use of low-end steel will inevitably cause the original excess of low-end steel to lose downstream demand, eventually disappearing, and replaced by high-end steel; but we must note that the state still has 35% when it comes to the rigid regulations. The low-end steel quasi-use rate, which may cause the relevant steel mills to increase the high-end production capacity, while holding the original low-end production capacity unchanged, resulting in further increase in output, supply exceeds demand continues to constrain the rise in steel prices. In general, it is an inevitable trend to increase the capacity structure of the closed steel mills in the downstream industry. At present, the impact on the construction steel market is negative; it will increase the existing low-end steel. The difficulty of sales.