“La Niña” hits, iron ore and coking coal supply may be limited

The “La Niña” phenomenon is often accompanied by higher than average historical precipitation in northern Australia. Specifically, during the period from November to April, the activity of tropical cyclones is higher than the historical average level, which often leads to heavy rains and floods, affecting the mining production and transportation in northern Australia, and affecting the production and transportation of coking coal. Especially obvious. The iron ore throughput in the northwestern Hedland and Dampier accounts for about 80% of Australia’s iron ore exports. Both ports are the throats of Australian iron ore exports. Affected by bad weather at the beginning of 2011, the throughput of iron ore in Hedland and Dampier has dropped significantly. This has, to some extent, caused a tight supply of iron ore and pushed up the price of iron ore.

Similarly, the throughput of coal terminals in Hay Point, Dalrymple Bay and Abbot Point in the northeast accounted for about 70% of the export volume of coking coal in Australia. These ports are important joints of Australian coking coal exports. Due to the over concentration of origin and ports, Australian coking coal exports are very vulnerable to heavy rain and flooding.

In the rebound caused by the market's expectation of warming, as the supply of iron ore and coking coal may be affected by bad weather, the space for the rebound of iron ore and coking coal prices may be relatively large, and the related resource stocks therefore have better explosive power. We recommend that investors continue to pay attention to the evolution of the "La Niña" phenomenon and the resulting investment opportunities.

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