Global photovoltaic industry is about to warm up

Global photovoltaic industry is about to warm up In 2011, China's installed photovoltaic power capacity reached 3 million kilowatts. In 2012, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased to 7 million kilowatts. In 2013, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic installations was 10 million kilowatts.

At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the photovoltaic industry at home and abroad frequently released a series of positive signals. The industry chain showed a rebound in the prices of all products. The rising share prices of related companies in the past week also reflected the high sentiment of investors. Under the influence of multiple favorable factors, many research institutions generally believe that the global photovoltaic industry is about to recover.

From the perspective of the current industry fundamentals, the signal from the market is full of warmth: in the past week, the domestic photovoltaic product prices have ended continuous decline in the past 9 months, showing a rebound, in which single-crystal silicon and single-crystal cell products rose Larger, up-stream polysilicon prices also rebounded slightly.

On January 2, Buffett’s Sino-U.S. Energy Holding Co., Ltd. announced that it spent US$2.5 billion to purchase photovoltaic power plant projects from the United States Sunny Power. This led to the active performance of photovoltaic concept stocks in multiple capital markets. China’s A shares and H shares Market-related concept stocks were also shaken for a while.

Regarding the trend of the photovoltaic market, Guoxin Securities analysts believe that the inefficient production capacity of domestic small and medium-sized photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises will be squeezed out this year, and the supply of the industry will continue to improve, coupled with the rising demand arising from the policy activation effect. The overall bottoming out has already formed.

In the Asia-Pacific region or entering the second growth period From the perspective of global demand, global PV demand will still be expected to maintain growth next year. The potential for future growth lies in the progress of the European debt crisis and the growth rate of markets such as the United States and Japan. Guoxin Securities analysts believe that the photovoltaic industry is expected to achieve a second high-speed growth at the onset of parity Internet access.

Analysts further believe that although the “double reverse” (anti-subsidy and anti-dumping) in Europe and the United States will hinder the efforts of domestic companies in exporting, the “double reverse” in the United States does not target the upper reaches. Therefore, if domestic companies can find a way to “detour,” The silicon wafer sub-sector will not be too bad, so the overseas market has not closed completely. For emerging markets such as Japan, domestic companies can focus on layout.

In 2013, the space of the US photovoltaic market is expected to be further expanded. In Japan, the overall proportion of photovoltaic power generation in Japan is relatively small in its power structure, and its potential for development cannot be underestimated. Some analysts pointed out that after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in March 2011, Japan increased investment and construction efforts in the field of photovoltaic power generation. It is estimated that by 2016, Japan's cumulative installed capacity will exceed 18.5 million kilowatts, and new photovoltaics will be required in 2012-2016. Installed about 14 million kilowatts.

It is worth noting that for Chinese component manufacturers, although the domestic market will grow significantly in 2013, the overall market space of Chinese companies may be smaller than that of 2012 due to the influence of the “double reverse” in Europe and the United States.

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