Daily Comment: Price is easy to rise and fall, short-term steel prices are expected to rise

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Today's hot spot

In terms of futures, today's black commodity futures are mixed, and the differentiation between varieties is obvious. It is affected by the environmental protection of the spot market. Among them, the contract of finished products closed up and the contract of raw materials closed down. From the trend of finished products, it is still a bullish trend. In the short term, there will be a breakthrough. In terms of spot, today's stocks have risen slightly, and environmental protection has stopped production. The market's reluctance to sell has become strong. The market has actively entered the passive destocking stage from the previous stage of active inventory, and the price is easy to rise and fall. It is expected that the short-term domestic steel prices will still be presented. Rise.

Macro hotspot

1, [manganese silicon futures main closing down more than 2%, rubber, iron ore, coke, coking coal, soybeans fell more than 1%] sugar, glass, Shanghai copper, ferrosilicon, Shanghai gold closed down. Shanghai nickel and crude oil closed up more than 1%, and Shanghai Lead, Thread, Zheng Coal, Egg, Hot Roll, Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Zinc and Zheng Cotton closed up.

2, [the market has staged a roller coaster market throughout the day, the chip and semiconductor plates collectively stalled]

3. [The RMB has been hitting a new low since March 9]

4. [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Continue to pragmatically advance the work related to blockchain from four aspects]

Market today

Raw material

Billet: The price of the national billet market has risen and fallen. Tangshan steel billet rose 10 yuan / ton, Shandong steel billet fell 20 yuan / ton, Shanxi steel billet fell 10 yuan / ton, other areas temporarily stabilized. Today, Tangshan billet straight transaction is general, warehousing spot rose from 3620 in early trading to 3640-3650 including tax, low-cost transaction can be, high price suspended; today Shandong steel billet dropped 20 yuan / ton, Q235 billet factory 3590-3600 yuan / ton, the actual transaction is negotiable, the steel mills basically do not take orders, multiple orders before the production, the middlemen are pessimistic.

Domestic mines: The market of domestically produced main producing areas is stable. Prices in North China, Northeast China, East China and South China have temporarily stabilized. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 625-635 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry-based tax-included cash out 615-625 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 630-640 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 610-620 yuan / ton

Imported mines: The market is less active and the transactions are average. The price of morning traders was basically stable. The mainstream price of PB powder in Shandong main port was 470, and the mainstream price of PB powder in Tangshan port was 475. In the early trading session, the market fell weakly, and the actual price reduction of steel mills was relatively high, which was lower than the psychological expectations of traders. In the afternoon, the market was relatively clear, and the steel mills were just required to replenish the warehouse as planned, and the transaction was slightly warmer.

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices rose slightly. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,057 yuan/ton, up by 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with Hangzhou, Fuzhou and Tianjin showing the largest increase of 60 yuan/ton; the prices in other regions were slightly stronger. Only Xi'an and Urumqi prices weakened. At present, today's snails have risen sharply, and downstream customers' demand for replenishment has been released one after another. In particular, the demand for snails is particularly strong. The market is pulling up and the sentiment is positive. The intraday slabs are up 10 yuan/ton, and the market is reluctant to sell. The merchant's offer has also risen again. As the shortage of specifications in some areas becomes more severe and the environmental protection supervision continues, the price will be supported in the short term. At the same time, considering that tomorrow will be the last day before the holiday, the demand for replenishment will continue to be released, so it is expected that the market price will stabilize tomorrow. The trend is strong.

Hot-rolled coil: Today, the hot rolling price of 24 major cities in the country is consolidating. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils is 4,195 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average national price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils is 4135. Yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's futures market fluctuated upwards, the market sentiment was more optimistic, and merchants' offers steadily rose slightly. However, the current demand is relatively weak. As the price continues to rise, the enthusiasm of downstream users is not high, and market transactions are gradually weak. Fortunately, the current market inventory resources are relatively small, the merchants have little pressure on shipments, so the willingness to price is strong. From the perspective of steel mills, steel mills have higher ordering costs, traders' enthusiasm for ordering is not high, and resource supply is limited in the short term, which also has certain support for prices. In addition, today's billet market price rose by 10 yuan / ton, the current carbon billet price is 3570 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Plate: Today's domestic plate market price consolidation operation, the average price of 20mm medium and heavy plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4342 yuan / ton, up 6 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. Today's market prices continue to remain high, and market sentiment is generally better. However, at present, the overall transaction is not heavy, mainly because downstream companies believe that the current price is higher, and the purchasing rhythm has been delayed. On the other hand, due to the uneven market specifications, it is difficult to adjust the goods, so it also affects the overall market. Transaction. From the perspective of steel mill prices, the current order price remains high, and the cost has certain support for the price. The overall confidence in the short-term market is still good, and traders are still operating on the market. In addition, today's billet market price rose by 10 yuan / ton, the current carbon billet price is 3570 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the plate market will run at a high level tomorrow.

Cold rolling: Today's national cold rolling prices rose slightly. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,608 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day price rose 3 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4510 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4550 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4450 yuan / ton. In terms of market: steel mills in North China are settled at low prices, and customers who lock in prices are cashing in, and the market is now low-cost resources. At present, the national north-south spread of cold-rolling has not expanded, and the pressure of resource diversion has been large, resulting in slow digestion of resources in North China. South China has relatively few resources, and mainstream specifications are out of stock. On the whole, it is expected that the cold rolling price will fluctuate within a narrow range tomorrow.

Profile: Today's domestic steel market price consolidation is on the sidelines, with a narrow adjustment of 10-20 yuan/ton in some regions. Tangshan steel fell 10-30 yuan / ton in the morning, the volume of the word trade in the plate rose 10 yuan / ton, plus the steel billet rose 10 yuan / ton to play a certain role in boosting the market, the overall turnover of the afternoon steel mill is generally strong In particular, the performance of the I-beams was particularly prominent, and the angular channel steels were all active, and the overall transaction slowed down in the afternoon. There are obvious concessions and loosenings in the working area slot in East China. H-beams are still at a high level due to higher cost. At present, the situation of stocking before the holiday has not increased significantly, and the risk of cashing out the merchants near the end of the month is somewhat strong. South China market due to pre-holiday terminal stocking, the recent South China profile market shipments are good, today's market opening prices are mostly close to the high, some of the price specifications continue to increase. On the whole, there is still strong support in the spot market, but due to the different regional price performance, the price trend is slightly different. It is expected that the spot price will remain high and fluctuate in the near future.

Steel pipe: Today's domestic steel pipe prices are stable and strong, according to the variety: the welded pipe 4 inch * 3.75mm national average price 4374 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; galvanized pipe 4 inch * 3.75mm nationwide The average price was 5,244 yuan / ton, up 3 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; the average price of seamless pipe Ф 108 * 4.5mm was 5,240 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. In terms of pipe factory, the price of Tianjin Youfa and Lida ex-factory was raised by RMB 20/ton, Tianjin Juncheng was temporarily stabilized, and the hot-rolling price of Linyi mainstream seamless pipe factory was RMB 4,750-4,780/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the market transactions were general and affected by environmental protection inspectors. The management plant was willing to pay a higher price and the market sentiment was generally optimistic. In terms of seamless pipes, market transactions are still sluggish, downstream demand is still not heavy, traders are not motivated to replenish goods, and maintain medium inventory. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will be adjusted and operated in the future.

Futures: Today's domestic black commodity futures are mixed, and the trend between varieties is seriously divided. Among them, the contract of finished products has risen and the contract of raw materials has fallen. The change of positions before the holiday is still not obvious. Weekly, due to the impact of environmental protection and limited production in the spot market, the finished product contract is significantly stronger than the raw material contract. Specifically, taking the snail as an example, from the daily level, the price is supported by the 5-day moving average and continues to rise, closing near the 60-day moving average. Today, the Yangxian line engulfs the physical part of yesterday’s Yinxian, MACD continues to attack the zero-axis, breaking through. Or can be expected. From the 1-hour line, the price is back above the 5-hour moving average, MACD is about to be a golden fork, and a short-term breakthrough will be formed. On the whole, short-term snails may break through. In terms of spot, the transaction performed well and the price rose slightly. Overall, black commodity futures will continue to rebound, suggesting to do more on dips and pay attention to positions.



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