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China's demand weakened, copper prices fell sharply
Recently, with China's March CPI and PPI and import and export data released, China's economic growth downside concerns have increased significantly. China's copper imports fell from the previous month, indicating that China's demand for 40% of global copper consumption has significantly weakened. The copper stocks in the previous period and the huge copper stocks in the domestic bonded area continued to increase, and the LME copper stocks stopped falling and rose, indicating the global copper consumption slump. In addition, the non-agricultural employment data released by the United States recently was lower than expected, the US economic recovery slowed down; the Spanish and Italian government bond yields fell, and the European debt crisis reignited. The above-mentioned multiple negatives were released, and the copper price finally broke the range volatility pattern since mid-January this year. The copper price decline in the market opened, and Shanghai copper may test the support of 55,000 yuan/ton. China's factor speculation cooling as China's 40% of global copper consumption has been one of the focuses of the international copper futures market. However, the recently released Chinese economic data is hard to be optimistic. China's CPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year in March, surpassing the pre-market consensus, indicating that China's inflation risk is picking up, the possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts is also lower, and monetary easing is expected to fall. In addition, China's imports increased by 5.3% in March, lower than expected, indicating weaker domestic demand; China's exports increased by 8.9% in March, exceeding market expectations, but exports are still at a low level in recent years; import and export growth rate is significantly lower than February. Internal and external factors showing China's economic slowdown are not optimistic. In the case of a recession in the Eurozone and a slowdown in the US economic recovery, weak demand in China is undoubtedly a negative sign for copper prices. Chinese copper demand weakened obvious signs According to customs statistics, China's imports in March unwrought copper and copper 462,000 tons, a decline of 4.6%. The decline in China's unwrought copper and copper imports has undoubtedly further verified the lack of copper consumption. In addition, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures inventory is currently at a historical high of more than 210,000 tons, and the Shanghai Copper Bonded Zone has a copper inventory of about 600,000 tons. The huge copper inventory pressure makes the prospect of copper consumption in the later period difficult to be optimistic. In addition, LME copper stocks have also changed from the previous decline, and recently rebounded again, there are still more than 267,000 tons. The domestic real estate market continues to be sluggish, the auto industry is growing at a low rate, and the home appliance industry is weak. China’s economic growth target this year has slowed to an eight-year low of 7.5%, perhaps the best interpretation of China’s economic prospects this year. The international market lacks new positive factors. If the previous international copper price has been relatively strong, perhaps with the Fed's QE3 expectations, there is a certain relationship between the high crude oil prices. Although the US non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected in March, Bernanke’s speech this week did not give any hints about QE3, and the market continued to pay attention to the comments of the other senior Fed officials on QE3 and the judgment of the economy. Some international agencies expect the Fed to suggest whether to launch QE3 at the June meeting. In addition, the central banks of major Western advanced economies such as the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have maintained their original benchmark interest rates and have not introduced new quantitative easing policies. The new worries in the market are the euro zone. Recently, the yields of Spanish and Italian government bonds have risen sharply. The worries about the European debt crisis have increased. The euro zone is unable to escape the recession in the first quarter and the second quarter of this year. Can the 3 quarters struggle from the quagmire of recession? It seems to be a problem. As the world's second-largest copper consumer region, the resurgence of the European debt crisis and the economic recession in the Eurozone have put copper prices under greater downward pressure. In addition, crude oil, which has been relatively strong in the previous period, has begun to weaken significantly in recent days. Commodity leader - the correction of crude oil prices has undoubtedly further stimulated the fall of copper prices.